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The Trump / Musk Bromance — What Markets Should Watch Out ForAs Donald Trump returns to the presidency in 2025, markets are preparing for notable shifts across various sectors, including stocks, forex and cryptocurrencies. But what about the Musk factor? The incoming president and the world’s richest man have remained seemingly inseparable in recent weeks as Musk has sat in on calls with world leaders, joined Trump and his family members for meals, and is a constant presence as the president-elect charts out his second administration. Our team will be following the shifts closely and here are some of our initial predictions for the financial markets.The friendship has paved the way for some viral AI generated TikToks and memes:What Donald Trump Might DoTrump may adopt a business-friendly stance with Musk as an ally. Policy shifts could include deregulating AI and cryptocurrencies, potentially boosting tech and financial marketsTrump may prioritise AI-driven national security measures and further investment in space exploration, aligning with Musk’s interests. These policies would enhance the U.S.’s competitive edge against global rivals.The stock market historically performed strongly during Trump’s first term, with the S&P 500 rising by 70% due to corporate tax cuts and deregulation. Analysts expect a similar short-term boost, with projections for another rally driven by potential tax reforms and infrastructure spending.Trump’s stance on trade and potential tariff wars could lead to fluctuations in the U.S. dollar. A protectionist agenda, if renewed, might weaken the dollar against other major currencies. However, a strong push for domestic economic growth might counteract this by attracting foreign investment. Forex traders are closely watching these dynamics as Trump’s policies unfold. As is our team!JPMorgan anticipates significant gains for Bitcoin, tied to what it calls the “debasement trade.” Trump’s fiscal expansion and geopolitical tensions are expected to boost Bitcoin and gold as safe-haven assets. Bitcoin’s recent upward momentum following his election victory reflects investor confidence in these predictions. This trend aligns with increased central bank gold purchases, which may also bolster the broader crypto marketWhile markets could benefit from a business-friendly agenda, risks include inflation from deficit spending and potential geopolitical disruptions. Predictions about Elon Musk and Donald Trump in 2025 involve significant developments in technology, policy, and business.Image source“Elon Musk and President Trump are great friends and brilliant leaders working together to Make America Great Again. Elon Musk is a once in a generation businessman and our federal bureaucracy will certainly benefit from his ideas and efficiency.” said Karoline Leavitt, Trump-Vance transition spokesperson.What Elon Musk Might DoPresident-elect Donald Trump and Elon Musk have big ambitions for making the federal government leaner and more efficient by reviewing its budget and operations from top to bottom. Musk has warned that his goals include cutting at least $2 trillion in federal spending, partly by axing inefficient federal workers.Musk’s ambitions for Mars colonisation through SpaceX continue, with potential support from a Trump administration favouring deregulation. This could accelerate missions under NASA’s Artemis program, which SpaceX heavily supports.President-elect Donald Trump listens as Elon Musk explains the operations ahead of the launch of the sixth test flight of the SpaceX Starship rocket. photo by Brandon BellHe also envisions a future driven by AI and robotics, proposing advancements in autonomous vehicles and humanoid robots to reshape industries. These technologies could face fewer regulatory hurdles if pro-tech policies under Trump prevail.Tesla could see short-term stock rallies if Trump reintroduces lenient regulations and protects EV manufacturing from foreign competition. However, Musk’s involvement in policy could lead to mixed market reactions over time.Potential ChallengesCritics warn that Trump’s tendency for administrative unpredictability and Musk’s controversial and often volatile leadership style could create volatility. Concerns about policy execution, market reactions, and societal readiness for such rapid changes could temper the optimism surrounding their visions.Both figures are positioned to influence transformative changes, with their partnership potentially shaping technology, governance, and global markets. And both have a captive audience. With 611 million active monthly users on X (Formerly Twitter) for Musk, and the world stage for Trump as president, we should expect to see some interesting developments next year.A great alliance that will benefit the economy, or a disaster waiting to happen? Comment below and tell us what you think. For expert financial marketing, book a free Zoom call with our team.
When you hear Thanksgiving Holiday, what do you think? Probably Turkey, pumpkin pie, dinners with friends and family and a Thanksgiving parade. But as one of the most celebrated holidays in the United States, Thanksgiving has traditionally influenced market trends, consumer spending patterns, and investor sentiment. Our team is looking at how Thanksgiving impacts the stock market, key historical trends, and the statistics behind this holiday’s financial influence.#1 Historical Thanksgiving Stock Market TrendsThanksgiving, observed on the fourth Thursday of November, has a unique effect on the stock market due to its timing. Several historical patterns have emerged over time:Pre-Holiday Optimism (Thanksgiving Rally)Investors often feel optimistic ahead of Thanksgiving, resulting in what’s sometimes referred to as the “Thanksgiving Rally.” This trend mirrors a broader phenomenon where stocks tend to perform well before major holidays. According to research by Yale Hirsch, stocks perform above average in the days leading up to holidays, a pattern that has held for Thanksgiving as well as Christmas and New Year’s.Friday Gains — The Black Friday EffectThe day after Thanksgiving, known as Black Friday, marks the beginning of the holiday shopping season and historically records above-average trading volumes. Not only are investors watching retail stocks more closely, but the optimism from consumer spending expectations often leads to market gains. For instance, the S&P 500 has historically seen an average return of 0.3% on the trading day following Thanksgiving.The Thanksgiving Week EffectThe short trading week, often marked by lighter trading volume, has resulted in an average upward trend. Data from MarketWatch indicates that the S&P 500 has delivered gains approximately 70% of the time during Thanksgiving week, with an average increase of about 0.5%.Historical ExampleDuring the recovery from the 2008 financial crisis, Thanksgiving week in 2008 saw a significant positive shift. Following the Federal Reserve’s interventions, the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 9.7% during Thanksgiving week, as investors anticipated stabilisation in the market and an increase in consumer spending for the holidays. This optimism, although short-lived, became a marker of how Thanksgiving rallies can provide a morale boost in challenging times.#2 Black Friday and Consumer Spending Is A Market DriverThanksgiving weekend is synonymous with Black Friday, which kicks off a massive spending surge. For investors, Black Friday data is crucial as it provides a real-time barometer of consumer sentiment, which can then influence stock prices in retail and related sectors.Black FridayAccording to the National Retail Federation (NRF), U.S. consumers spent $9 billion on Black Friday in 2022, up from $8.9 billion the previous year. This high spending figure has significant implications for retail stocks. Retail giants like Walmart, Target, and Amazon often experience a bump in stock prices based on favorable sales forecasts and spending data.Cyber MondayIn recent years, Cyber Monday (the Monday after Thanksgiving) has extended the weekend shopping spree into the digital realm. For example, in 2021, Cyber Monday sales reached $10.7 billion, according to Adobe Analytics. This shift in consumer behaviour has driven stocks of e-commerce giants like Amazon, Shopify, and even logistics firms like FedEx and UPS, which see increased demand.Market IndicatorsBlack Friday and Cyber Monday spending often serve as indicators for the overall holiday shopping season. If consumer spending is strong, it often signals investor confidence that GDP and consumer sentiment will be positive for the quarter, driving up stock prices. Conversely, weak Black Friday or Cyber Monday sales can lead to downward pressure on retail stocks as investors adjust expectations.#3 Volatility and Liquidity Concerns During Thanksgiving WeekWhile Thanksgiving week is typically marked by positive momentum, it also experiences reduced trading volumes. The U.S. markets close early on the Friday following Thanksgiving, resulting in less trading time. Additionally, many institutional investors and traders take time off, leading to lower-than-usual liquidity.Impact of Lower LiquidityLower liquidity can lead to increased market volatility, as even relatively small trades can have a larger impact on stock prices. Historically, smaller stocks and certain sectors (like technology and consumer discretionary) are more volatile during this time, which can offer both risks and opportunities for investors.Statistics on Reduced VolumeThanksgiving week has consistently shown trading volumes that are 25–30% lower than average weekly volumes. In 2022, for example, the average daily trading volume on the NYSE during Thanksgiving week was around 3 billion shares, compared to a monthly average of 3.9 billion shares, indicating the impact of the holiday on trading behaviour.#4 Thanksgiving’s Impact on Investor Sentiment and the Santa Claus RallyThe Thanksgiving period sets the tone for the “Santa Claus Rally,” a phenomenon where the stock market experiences a strong finish to the year in December. Thanksgiving provides initial data on consumer confidence, retail sales, and other economic indicators that investors use to gauge whether a year-end rally is likely.The Santa Claus Rally ConnectionAccording to data from Bank of America, the S&P 500 has delivered average gains of 1.3% in the last five trading days of December and the first two of January, historically known as the Santa Claus Rally. This performance is often attributed to optimism around consumer spending, year-end financial manoeuvres by institutional investors, and holiday bonuses driving increased investing.Thanksgiving week in 2020, retail stocks and tech giants saw an increase in stock prices as consumer spending remained strong despite covid19. This set the stage for a 3.7% increase in the S&P 500 in December 2020, marking one of the more pronounced Santa Claus rallies in recent years.#5 Investment Strategies Around ThanksgivingGiven the historical trends, some investors employ strategies specifically timed for Thanksgiving and the holiday season. Here are two common approaches:Seasonal Stock PickingInvestors often focus on retail and consumer discretionary stocks leading up to Thanksgiving. Companies like Amazon, Walmart, Target, and even Disney (due to holiday movie releases) are some stocks that tend to receive higher trading volumes and price appreciation around Thanksgiving.Short-Term Options TradingDue to the increased volatility and positive price trends during Thanksgiving week, short-term traders may consider options trading strategies like call options on retail stocks. Leveraging these trends, options traders can potentially benefit from quick gains while managing the risk through limited duration.Whether it’s the positive momentum in the lead-up to Thanksgiving, the Black Friday consumer spending rush, or the lighter liquidity that adds a touch of volatility, Thanksgiving remains a significant period for both investors and analysts.We will be covering all of this for our finance clients with daily analysis, blogs, social media and email marketing. Book a free call with our team to talk about your financial marketing.
Halloween is synonymous with costumes, candy, and spooky stories. But that’s not all. Over the years, October 31 has also been a day of significant financial events. From stock market crashes to major corporate moves, Halloween has left its mark on the world of finance in some weird ways. These are spooky, especially #5.1. Halloween Massacre of 2006 — Canada’s Income Trust ChangesOn October 31, 2006, the Canadian government, led by Prime Minister Stephen Harper, announced a sudden policy shift that would tax income trusts, effectively ending their tax-advantaged status. Before this change, income trusts were popular with investors because they allowed corporations to avoid corporate income taxes, distributing profits directly to investors. This Halloween surprise wiped billions off the value of trusts, and the day became known as the “Halloween Massacre” in Canadian financial history.2. The Beginning of the End for Lehman Brothers (2007)One year before the global financial crisis reached its peak, on Halloween in 2007, Lehman Brothers reported significant losses from its mortgage-related assets. Although the firm hadn’t yet collapsed, these early signs of trouble foreshadowed the catastrophic events of 2008. By September 2008, Lehman Brothers filed for the largest bankruptcy in U.S. history, triggering a domino effect that led to the financial crisis.3. Japan’s Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi Merger (1995)On October 31, 1995, two of Japan’s largest banks, the Bank of Tokyo and Mitsubishi Bank, announced a merger that created the Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi, which at the time became the world’s largest bank by assets. This move was part of Japan’s broader efforts to deal with its own financial challenges in the 1990s, following the collapse of the country’s asset price bubble.4. Brexit Reboot: Bank of England Rate Cut Signals (2019)On Halloween in 2019, the Bank of England made headlines by hinting at a potential interest rate cut, depending on the economic impact of Brexit. With the UK set to leave the European Union, the uncertainty had affected markets and currency exchange rates. Although Brexit was ultimately delayed until early 2020, this Halloween event reflected the mounting financial anxieties in the run-up to the historic exit.5. The New York Stock Exchange Plunge of 1929Though the infamous “Black Tuesday” occurred on October 29, 1929, Halloween that year witnessed the aftermath of the Great Crash as panic spread through global markets. The New York Stock Exchange remained chaotic throughout the week, with massive sell-offs continuing as investors scrambled to protect their assets. The Halloween aftermath solidified the start of the Great Depression, one of the darkest periods in financial history.6. The End of the Bretton Woods System (1971)Halloween 1971 marked a pivotal moment in international finance as the U.S. formally abandoned the Bretton Woods system of fixed exchange rates, following President Nixon’s decision earlier that year to suspend the dollar’s convertibility into gold. The dollar began floating freely against other currencies, and this shift ultimately transformed global foreign exchange markets. This move is seen as the dawn of the modern era of floating exchange rates.7. GM’s Second Bankruptcy Rumours (2013)On October 31, 2013, General Motors (GM) was battling rumours of a second potential bankruptcy following its 2009 collapse and subsequent government bailout. The rumours caused GM’s stock to drop and sparked discussions about the company’s long-term viability. Although GM managed to survive, the Halloween scare underscored the fragile state of the American auto industry during the recovery period.While Halloween is often associated with ghost stories and horror films, it has also proven to be a significant date in financial history. From stock market plunges to strategic corporate acquisitions, October 31 has witnessed events that shaped economies, industries, and markets.Coincidence or something spookier? Leave your comments below and Happy Halloween!
It might seem like we say this every month but, October is a pivotal month in the financial markets, earning a reputation for both volatility and significant economic events. Historically, it has witnessed major stock market crashes, earnings reports, economic data releases, and central bank decisions that shape the outlook for global economies and markets. Of course we are going to be talking about Halloween later in the month too.🎃 But for now, let’s explore the key financial market events that typically occur in October, along with notable trend comparisons from 2023.1. Third-Quarter Earnings SeasonOctober marks the beginning of the third-quarter earnings season, where publicly traded companies release their financial performance for July through September. For example, reports from tech giants like Apple, Amazon, and Microsoft, as well as financial institutions like JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs, often set the tone for market sentiment.Significance: Earnings reports can cause sharp movements in stock prices. Better-than-expected results often lead to price rallies, while disappointing numbers may trigger sell-offs. Beyond individual companies, these earnings offer insights into broader economic trends, such as consumer demand, corporate profitability, and inflation pressures.2023 Insight: The earnings season in October 2023 came under the shadow of inflationary pressures and rising interest rates. Investors closely watched how companies managed their margins amid increased borrowing costs, particularly in sectors like technology and real estate.2. Federal Reserve Meeting Minutes and Policy UpdatesOctober often sees the release of the Federal Reserve’s meeting minutes from September, as well as updates on monetary policy. Investors closely scrutinise these minutes for any clues about the Fed’s outlook on inflation, interest rates, and economic growth. The central bank’s policies have a profound impact on financial markets, particularly in terms of bond yields, stock prices, and the strength of the U.S. dollar.Significance: If the Fed signals a more hawkish stance (raising interest rates), bond yields may rise, and stock prices could drop as borrowing becomes more expensive. Conversely, dovish signals (indicating a pause or cut in rates) tend to be bullish for equity markets, as it indicates easier financial conditions.2023 Insight: In October 2023, the Federal Reserve was grappling with stubborn inflation and mixed economic data. Speculation over further interest rate hikes or a potential pause contributed to market volatility, especially in fixed-income and equity markets.3. Stock Market Volatility — The “October Effect”We love the spookiness of this month and it is relevant to the finance space! October has historically been known for its volatility, earning the nickname “The October Effect.” The 1929 Great Depression and the 1987 Black Monday stock market crash both occurred in October, leading to a psychological association with turbulence. While this is not necessarily rooted in economic data, market participants often anticipate heightened volatility during this month.Significance: Volatility presents both opportunities and risks for traders and investors. Large price swings can create openings for short-term gains, but they also amplify risks, particularly for those holding leveraged positions or highly speculative assets.2023 Insight: In October 2023, market volatility was fueled by concerns about the Federal Reserve’s rate hike path, geopolitical tensions, and mixed corporate earnings reports. Uncertainty over inflation and consumer spending added to the nervousness, especially as the bond market reacted to higher interest rates.4. Global Geopolitical DevelopmentsGeopolitical events frequently move markets, and October is a month where such developments often come to a head. Trade tensions, elections, and international conflicts can cause sudden shifts in investor sentiment. For example, news of political instability in a major country or the escalation of trade wars can disrupt supply chains and negatively affect corporate earnings forecasts.Significance: Markets are highly sensitive to political risks, particularly those related to trade, energy prices, and regulatory changes. Currency markets are often the most directly impacted by geopolitical uncertainty, as investors seek safe-haven assets like gold or the U.S. dollar during periods of instability.2023 Insight: In 2023, geopolitical tensions in Eastern Europe and the Middle East continued to weigh on markets. The Russian-Ukraine conflict and U.S/ China trade relations remained central concerns, influencing commodity prices (especially oil and gas) and market volatility.5. U.S. Labor Market Data and Inflation ReportsThe U.S. labor market report, typically released in the first week of October, is a crucial indicator of economic health. Investors track the unemployment rate, job creation, and wage growth to gauge the strength of the economy. Meanwhile, inflation data (CPI and PPI reports) in October offer clues about the trajectory of price increases and how the Federal Reserve may react.Significance: Strong job growth and rising wages suggest a robust economy, but they may also signal inflationary pressures, which could prompt tighter monetary policy. Inflation data is particularly important for bond and currency markets, as higher inflation generally erodes bond returns and impacts exchange rates.2023 Insight: In October 2023, the U.S. labor market remained tight, with unemployment hovering near historic lows. However, wage growth showed signs of moderating, a key factor the Federal Reserve monitored when deciding whether further interest rate hikes were necessary. Inflation remained a central concern, particularly in energy and food prices.6. International Monetary Fund (IMF) and World Bank Annual MeetingsThe IMF and World Bank hold their annual meetings in October, drawing policymakers, central bankers, and economists from around the world. These meetings often focus on global economic challenges like debt sustainability, economic development, and climate change.Significance: The meetings serve as a platform for major policy announcements and economic forecasts. Any updates from these institutions on global growth projections, inflation, or debt risks can move markets, particularly in emerging economies that rely on international financing.2023 Insight: In October 2023, discussions at the IMF and World Bank meetings centered on global inflation, supply chain disruptions, and the economic impact of geopolitical tensions. Emerging markets faced increasing challenges from rising interest rates and capital outflows, while developed markets focused on balancing inflation control with economic growth.7. Energy Markets and OPEC MeetingsEnergy markets, particularly oil and natural gas, are closely watched in October, as this is often when the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) holds key meetings. OPEC’s production decisions can have a significant impact on global energy prices, which in turn affect inflation, corporate profitability, and consumer spending.Significance: A rise in oil prices can trigger inflationary pressures across economies, affecting everything from transportation to manufacturing. Conversely, falling prices can ease inflation but may signal weaker global demand, which is often a concern for global growth.2023 Insight: In 2023, OPEC continued to struggle with the balance between maintaining oil prices and managing production levels. Energy prices remained elevated, contributing to inflationary pressures in both developed and emerging economies, while energy stocks saw increased volatility.October is a month of heightened importance in the financial markets, with a combination of earnings reports, central bank policy updates, geopolitical developments, and economic data releases influencing investor sentiment. While the “October Effect” suggests the potential for volatility, it is the underlying economic conditions and corporate performance that ultimately drive market movements.Contentworks Agency is the leading marketing agency for the financial services sector. Book a free call with our team to talk about your forex, fintech or banking marketing.
Autumn is upon us and we’re gearing up for a busy September with loads of market-moving events on the horizon. Today, we’ll guide you through a few of the most notable ones. Let’s do this!(Potential) market-moving events in SeptemberThere are quite a few potentials for this list, but we’ve limited ourselves to three, for the sake of brevity. They include the European Central Bank’s monetary policy meeting, the United States Federal Reserve meeting, and some key economic data releases from China.1. European Central Bank (ECB) Monetary Policy MeetingWe won’t have to wait long for the ECB’s meeting on September 12. This highly anticipated event seems all the more important now, given the delicate balance the eurozone economy faces between slowing growth and constant inflation hikes.The ECB has been busy raising interest rates to fight inflation, but further tightening could slow the economy down even more.If the ECB does decide to raise rates, the euro might strengthen against other major currencies, as higher interest rates tend to attract more foreign investment. However, if the ECB pauses rate hikes (which they might do if they feel overly concerned about the economy), the euro could weaken, creating volatility and trading opportunities in euro-based currency pairs.2. United States Federal Reserve MeetingThe US Federal Reserve’s September 18 meeting will be keenly monitored by traders and brokers alike, especially as the US economy has recently shown signs of slowing down a bit, with high inflation still a concern. Against that backdrop, the Fed faces a very tough choice. They either continue raising rates or pause them, to prevent an even deeper economic slowdown.If the Fed does choose to raise rates, the US dollar could strengthen. If that happens, it could potentially impact USD currency pairs like EUR/USD, GBP/USD, and USD/JPY. But, if the Fed chooses to hold fire on a potential rate cut, the dollar could weaken, leading to increased market volatility and opportunities for forex traders.Yeah — you’re going to want to keep an eye on this one!3. China’s Economic Data ReleasesA blockbuster bulk announcement of China’s economic data, including GDP growth, industrial production, and retail sales, will be coming on September 20. As we all know, China is a production powerhouse and these figures, while usually important, are crucial to traders and brokers at the moment.Why? Well, China’s economy is riding a bit of a bumpy road in terms of slowing growth and rising debt. The government is doing it’s best by imposing stimulus measures, but so far, no good.Weak GDP or industrial production data could lead to a weakening of the Chinese yuan (CNY) and increased demand for safe-haven currencies like the US dollar and Japanese yen, as traders look to maintain their wealth.But, strong data could bolster the yuan, impacting currency pairs linked to the Chinese economy and creating opportunities for brokers to capitalise on market shifts.Your Turn!Brokers, what’s your key focus this month? What patterns are you observing with your traders? Let us know on X at @_contentworks.Top fundamental events this monthOn top of the major potential events, we’ve put together a quick list of a bunch of other fundamental things that might make the markets swing this month.September 2–8● CNY — Chinese Caixin Manufacturing PMI; Chinese Balance of Trade● USD — ISM Manufacturing PMI; ADP National Employment Report; ISM Services PMI; Nonfarm Payrolls; Unemployment Rate● AUD — GDP Growth Rate QoQ; Balance of Trade● CAD — Balance of Trade; BoC Interest Rate Decision; Unemployment RateSeptember 9–15● AUD — Westpac Consumer Confidence Change● GBP — Unemployment Rate; GDP MoM; Manufacturing Production MoM/YoY● USD — Inflation Rate MoM/YoY; PPI MoM● EUR — ECB Interest Rate Decision;September 16–22● CAD — Inflation Rate YoY● USD — Retail Sales Ex Autos MoM; Retail Sales MoM; FOMC Economic Projections; Federal Funds Rate● JPY — Balance of Trade● GBP — Inflation Rate YoYSeptember 23–30● AUD — RBA Interest Rate Decision; CPI● EUR — German Ifo Business Climate; French Inflation Rate YoY Prel● USD — CB Consumer Confidence; GDP Growth Rate QoQ Final; Durable Goods Orders; Personal Spending MoM; Personal IncomeHere at Contentworks we closely follow market movements and prep content that we think your traders would love to read. Let’s get you started.Speak soon!The Contentworks team
All eyes are on the market-moving events coming up in August and what lies ahead in September. As the leading financial services marketing agency, we’ll look at a few of the financial showstoppers! Let’s go.1. It’s earnings reporting seasonYep, it’s that time of the year again!August is the peak of the earnings season for many large corporations. Brokers and investors will be keeping a keen eye on the quarterly reports from major tech giants, financial institutions, and consumer goods companies.Companies’ performance in the face of ongoing economic uncertainties, including supply chain disruptions and inflation, will be under scrutiny. Strong earnings could bolster market confidence, while disappointing results might trigger selloffs.Here’s a little overview of when companies declared their Q2 earnings last year and when you may be able to expect their announcements in 2024.2. The US Presidential ElectionJuly couldn’t have had more election-related attention-grabbing headlines if it tried.First, was the failed assassination attempt on Trump’s life, and then Joe Biden’s monumental U-turn on leading the Democrats into the election. Dare we guess what’s coming next? Well, we know that it’s looking more and more likely that Kamala Harris, Biden’s VP, will be the one to take over the reins ahead of the Democrat national convention in Chicago between August 19–22. If, for whatever reason, that doesn’t happen — there may well be some volatility in the markets. As for what happens in November, it looks way too close to call. It looks like Harris has erased Trump’s lead.Source: Economist3. Economic data releasesThere are economic releases and there are economic releases. A few biggies are coming over the next few weeks that will no doubt be dotted on most trader’s calendars, including:● US Employment Report: The non-farm payrolls report will provide insights into the health of the labour market. Strong job growth could give the US economy a big boost, potentially improving investor confidence. Weaker numbers might raise concerns about an overall economic slowdown.● Inflation Data: Traders will be monitoring CPI and PPI data for any signs of inflationary trends. Consistently high inflation might prompt the Fed to tighten its monetary policy, impacting interest rates and stock valuations — with clear implications for investment strategies.● GDP Reports: The preliminary GDP figures of major economies, including the US, countries in the Eurozone, the UK and China, offer a snapshot of economic growth in these key economies.More on those in a minute…Your Turn!Brokers, what’s your key focus this month? What patterns are you observing with your traders? Let us know on X at @_contentworks.Top fundamental events this monthOn top of the major potential events, we’ve put together a quick list of a bunch of other fundamental things that might make the markets swing this month.August 1–4● AUD — Balance of Trade● CNY — Chinese Caixin Manufacturing PMI● GBP — Official Bank Rate, GBP MPC Meeting Minutes● USD — ISM Manufacturing PMI● USD — Average Hourly Earnings MoM; Unemployment Rate; Nonfarm PayrollsAugust 5–11● USD — ISM Services PMI● AUD — RBA Interest Rate Decision● EUR — German Balance of Trade● AUD — NAB Business Confidence● CNY — Chinese Balance of Trade● CAD — Balance of Trade; Unemployment RateAugust 12–18● GBP — Unemployment Rate; Inflation Rate YoY; GDP MoM; Manufacturing Production MoM/YoY; GDP Growth Rate YoY Prel; Retail Sales MoM● USD — PPI MoM; Inflation Rate YoY; Inflation Rate MoM● JPY — GDP Growth Rate QoQ PrelvAugust 19–25● AUD — RBA Meeting Minutes● CAD — Inflation Rate YoY● JPY — Balance of Trade● USD — FOMC Minutes● EUR — German HCOB Manufacturing PMI FlashAugust 26–31● EUR — German Ifo Business Climate; German GfK Consumer Confidence; German Inflation Rate YoY Prel● USD — Durable Goods Orders; CB Consumer Confidence; Personal Spending MoM; Personal Income● CAD — GDP Growth Rate Annualized; GDP Growth Rate QoQHere at Contentworks we closely follow market movements and prep content your traders love to read. Let’s get you started.Speak soon!The Contentworks team
As a leading financial services marketing agency, we provide analysis, PR, articles, education centres and much more for our fintech, forex and banking clients. As we enter July and kick off H2, the markets are primed to hot up! Here’s a quick overview of all the important things due to happen this month that may impact market movements.1. Trump vs. Biden — the battle for the Oval Office continuesYou cannot have missed the news last week that these old (no pun intended) adversaries locked horns for their first debate ahead of the 2024 Presidential election in November.Okay, so the next (and last) official debate isn’t happening until 10 September, but there will be plenty of swings, misses and heavy blows before then — including in July.For a start, the Republican National Convention will be held in Milwaukee from 15–18 July. Aside from that, you may have noticed that Mr. Trump isn’t exactly evasive or shy when it comes to pushing his agenda. Expect a lot of bluff, bluster and return fire on an almost daily basis. Worries over Biden’s health surged after a poor display by the current PresidentWhile these spats may not affect the markets directly now, the way this race is going, will make traders sit up and take notice, preparing for the most likely outcome.2. The UK General ElectionIf you’re interested in market-moving elections, you don’t have to wait long. The UK General Election is happening much sooner — literally Thursday this week! Almost all polls have Labour projected to win the race for seats for the first time since 2005.UK General Election Polls, Source: BBCExpect GBP to experience volatility in the immediate aftermath of the election results. The markets are known to react strongly to political uncertainty, and a change in government can may well lead short-term fluctuations in the currency.As with the US election, there may be short-term fluctuations in the stock market as investors reassess their portfolios.3. General US Stock Market HistoryWhile it’s not strictly an event itself, since 1928, July has been the best month of the year, on average, in terms of stock-market performance. So the month is a spectacle in its own right.Over those 96 years, the S&P 500 SPX has experienced a gain of 1.7% in July and finished the month higher more than 60% of the time, according to Dow Jones Market Data. Likewise, since 1897 the Dow Jones Industrial Average has delivered an average monthly increase of 1.4% in July — clearly making July the best month of the year. The Dow has recorded positive returns in nearly 65% of the Julys since then.But don’t get too excited. The history books also tell us that July in election years are notoriously hit and miss. You’ve been warned!4. FOMC Meeting — Wednesday, July 31This is a biggie that a lot of investors will be keeping their eyes on. But what could happen? Many experts are expecting the Fed to hold rates steady at a target of 5.25%-5.50%, as the Fed still waits for inflation to ease a little more. It did the same in June and prior meetings, so no major change in that policy is expected.But expectations don’t always turn into reality…Your Turn!Brokers, what’s your key focus this month? What patterns are you observing with your traders? Let us know on X at @_contentworks.Top Fundamental Events This MonthOn top of the major potential events, we’ve put together a quick list of a bunch of other fundamentals that might make the markets swing this month.July 1–7● EUR — German Inflation Rate YoY (Preliminary)● USD — ISM Manufacturing PMI● USD — FOMC Minutes● GBP — UK General Election● USD — Non-farm Payrolls● USD — Unemployment RateJuly 8–14● GBP — GDP (MoM)● USD — Inflation Rate (MoM, YoY)● USD — PPI (MoMJuly 15–21● CAD — Inflation Rate (YoY)● USD — Retail Sales (MoM)● GBP — Inflation Rate (YoY)● EUR — ECB Interest Rate Decision● JPY — Inflation Rate YoY● GBP — Retail Sales MoMJuly 22–28● CAD — BoC Interest Rate Decision● USD — Personal Spending MoM● USD — Personal IncomeJuly 22–28● CNY — Chinese NBS Manufacturing PMI● JPY — BoJ Interest Rate Decision● USD — Employment Cost Index QoQ● USD — Fed Press ConferenceHere at Contentworks we closely follow market movements and prep content that we think your traders would love to read. Let’s get you started.Speak soon!The Contentworks teamPS — Happy Independence Day to our friends across the pond, and Happy Election Day to everyone in the UK!
We’re galloping into the June markets and our brokers are seeing increased acquisitions and positive uptake on lead gen campaigns in Africa, LATAM, the UK and more. So what are forex brokers watching in June? Here’s a roundup from our financial services marketing team.Central Bank Decisions in FocusOne of the main drivers of market movements in June will likely be the upcoming policy decisions from major central banks. If we had to pick out a single super-important event, we’d plump for the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting on June 11.If there are any adjustments to US interest rates, the repercussions will be felt across the markets and impact trading. The US dollar (USD) and associated pairs would likely experience fluctuations.The Bank of England (BoE) meeting on June 20 will have a similar impact on GBP. With the European Central Bank (ECB) meeting on June 8–9th potentially impacting the value of the euro (EUR).Keep up with compliance by reading our monthly Regulation Roundups.Geopolitical tensionsSadly, this one is always something we have to consider. With global conflicts going on around the world, there’s always a chance that destabilising events will impact the global economy. The war in Ukraine and the escalated situation in Israel/Palestine are just two of the areas that could cause problems for traders.Brokers, particularly those that deal with commodities like oil, gas, and gold — will be watching these events keenly and will need to be ready to act if prices start to swing.Spotlight on marketing and AIAs ever, the digital marketing landscape continues to evolve, with the upcoming Google Chrome update limiting third-party cookies set to impact how forex brokers reach their target audiences.This means that FX brokers need to shift toward more targeted and personalised marketing strategies. This is a good thing if you want to provide real value to your user base in a crowded financial services space.Because of this, you can expect to see an increased focus on the creation of high-quality content that resonates with specific trader demographics.Overuse of AI is also something that’s being clamped down on. Companies that heavily rely on AI to generate copy will find themselves increasingly in trouble. Google’s March update saw the company pledge to penalise websites that don’t provide original content designed to answer user queries. Speak to our team for a human rewrite of your financial services website.Upcoming eventsFor those seeking to stay updated with the latest trends and network with industry professionals, June offers a couple of nice events:● iFX EXPO Cyprus (June 8–20 June): This premier event brings together industry leaders, brokers, and technology providers for conferences, exhibitions, and workshops. Contentworks Agency is a returning media partner for the event and the team will be there for coffee and catchups.● FMA European Trading Expo Europe (12–14 June): The Financial Markets Association (FMA) hosts a series of trading expos in June, offering educational sessions and opportunities to connect with brokers and industry experts.Your turn!What are you looking forward to in June? Join the debate over on X at @_contentworks.Top fundamental events in June 2024Here are some of the events that are most likely to move the markets this month. No guarantees!June 3–9● USD — ISM Manufacturing PMI● AUD — GDP Growth Rate QoQ● CAD — BoC Interest Rate Decision● EUR — ECB Interest Rate Decision● USD — Unemployment Rate● USD — Nonfarm PayrollsJune 10–16● GBP — Unemployment Rate● GBP — GDP MoM● USD — Inflation Rate MoM● USD — Federal Funds Rate● USD — Fed Press ConferenceJune 17–23● GBP — Official Bank Rate● GBP — Inflation Rate YoYJune 24–30● CAD — Inflation Rate YoY● USD — GDP Growth Rate QoQ Final● USD — Core PCE Price Index MoMIf you enjoyed our broker focused roundup, please share it with your network and internal teams. Want compliant financial services marketing for your finance brand? Book a free Zoom call with our team.
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