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How could the China /Taiwan situation affect the markets? 2022 is seemingly the year of geopolitical friction. Today we’re shedding some light on the China Taiwan dispute and how potential escalation may affect the markets. After that, we’ll take our usual plunge into the top fundamental events to watch out for this week. China-Taiwan, what’s the deal? First things first, what’s actually going on? Well, it all goes back to 1945. After World War Two, China took the island from Japan. Following that, China was gripped in a civil war between the ruling nationalist government and the Communist Party, led by Mao Zedong. In 1949, the communists won the civil war and took control in Beijing. The remaining nationalist government, now exiled, fled to Taiwan, where they ruled for several decades. Technically, Taiwan is and always has been a part of China, but this has is heavily disputed by the local island population. Currently, only 13 countries (plus the Vatican) recognise Taiwan as a sovereign country. It’s also very hard to see how that situation will be changed as declaring a nation as a sovereign territory must be accepted by unanimous agreement by the permanent members of the UN Security Council — the United States, United Kingdom, France, Japan, Russia and, of course, China. Oops! And what’s happening in 2022? Given what’s happening in eastern Europe right now, anything seems possible. China has always exerted a lot of pressure on nations to refrain from accepting Taiwan as a country in its own right and still declares, with great fervour, that it claims sole sovereignty of the territory. The situation hit boiling point a few weeks ago when US Speaker of the House of Representatives, Nancy Pelosi visited the island despite strong condemnation from China, with the nation declaring the visit “extremely dangerous”. This resulted in China launching a military operation which effectively formed a blockade of the island. What’s the potential market impact of an invasion? So what if China sought to militarily enforce its claims? Taiwan might be small, but its economy is mighty. A huge amount of the world’s everyday electronic equipment — from phones to laptops, watches and games consoles — are powered by computer chips made in Taiwan. Aside from that, any incursion would be met with global condemnation and potential sanctions. It’s hard to see them being as hard-hitting as those currently placed on Russia, but still. Such sanctions could have a big impact on CNY-connected FX pairs and the stocks of companies that rely on products and raw materials from China, which is a lot, to say the least. China’s powerhouse manufacturing sector is deeply linked with economies across the globe, including the United States and Europe. Arguably, any military confrontation — regardless of sanctions — would hit the global economy harder than any other event since World War Two. US trade with China is worth approximately $656 billion per year. And then there’s the usual market impact to consider. Significant military conflict and unrest has been associated with rapid 10–20% declines in equity markets. Serious geopolitical stress is also bad for risk assets, including emerging market equities. The good news is that the markets have shown no concern over Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan or China’s menacing response. The S&P 500 rose the week Pelosi visited Taiwan and China started its military operation, as investors interpreted this as posturing. There’s no actual sign that China is preparing to launch an actual war. And breathe! What do you think? Do you think China would realistically risk an invasion/annexation of Taiwan? What could the ramifications be if so? Have you planned a shift in your trading strategy? Let us know by tweeting us at @_Contentworks. Top trading events this week The markets look pretty hectic this week. Here’s when and where all the main action can be found. Monday ● JPY — GDP Growth Annualised Prel (Q2) Tuesday ● GBP — Employment Change (MAY); Unemployment Rate (JUN) ● CAD — Core Inflation Rate MoM (JUL); Core Inflation Rate YoY (JUL); Inflation Rate YoY (JUL) Wednesday ● GBP — Core Inflation Rate YoY (JUL); Inflation Rate YoY (JUL) ● EUR — GDP Growth Rate QoQ 2nd Est (Q2); GDP Growth Rate YoY 2nd Est (Q2) ● USD — Retail Sales MoM (JUL); FOMC Minutes Thursday ● AUD — Employment Change (JUL); Unemployment Rate (JUL) ● EUR — Core Inflation Rate YoY Final (JUL) Friday ● JPY — Inflation Rate YoY (JUL) Here at Contentworks we closely follow market movements and prep content that we think your traders would love to read. Let’s get you started right here. The Contentworks team
September is sometimes called the worst month to invest. Today, we’re going to explain why, and check out what 2022’s variant may have in store. After that, we’ll delve into the top fundamental events to watch out for this week. Let’s do this! For the past 50 years, September has historically marked the worst month of the year for the Dow, with stocks down on an average of 1%, as can be seen from below chart.Wake me up when September ends… Greenday fans out there may well recognise that lyric. Billy Joe Armstrong probably wasn’t singing about investing, but he was on the money. September has long been seen as a bogey month for investing. Why, you ask? History teaches us that the ninth month of the year is when the stock market typically performs worst as the three leading indexes regularly take a dip It’s even become known as the “September Effect.” Since 1950, during the month of September, the Dow Jones Industrial Average has averaged a decline of 0.8%, while the S&P 500 has averaged a decline of 0.5%. Going a bit further back, from 1928 to 2021, the S&P 500 index has averaged a 1% decline during the month of September. Not pleasant reading if you’re betting big on the mightiest US companies. What could make September miserable? Aside from that bleak historical perspective, what else might make September 2022 a month to forget for investors? #1 A rebound at the pumps Oil prices hit a record high earlier this summer, but have fallen sharply in recent weeks. WTI Crude Oil, 3 months Source: DailyFX This drop is largely down to supply and demand. When pump prices flew up, drivers worldwide were forced to adjust, trying to limit how much they drove (and spent). They carpooled, combined errands, and cut out unnecessary journeys. At the same time, countries like the US have beefed up their oil production. So demand has dropped and supply has increased. But this is surely unsustainable. Low prices will make drivers more confident in taking more trips, and increased domestic consumption can’t last forever. Should this situation change in September, expect trouble in the markets. #2 Rising food prices This is also nothing new. There are numerous factors at play here. For the UK, Brexit may be a factor. Fuel prices certainly played their part as containers of food became more expensive to transport by road, sea or air. The continued war in Ukraine has made a dent in global markets for food, fuel and fertiliser too. W 1:COM (Wheat), 6 months Source: Bloomberg As you can see, prices have largely fallen back to their pre-war levels. This should be good news, but again, as with oil, this situation is all too precarious. Consistent supplies of grains and fertilisers are vital, but their freedom of movement is as unpredictable as the outbreak of the war that restricted it in the first place. The recent price drops will have done little to calm investors down. How sustainable are current prices? Not very. #3 That creeping recession… Like it or not, the next recession is well overdue. While it may not quite arrive precisely in September, investors are increasingly wary that its on the way. Rising inflation is adding to that worry. Inflation can bring layoffs, fewer jobs and higher interest rates. Last week’s US consumer price index (CPI) report revealed year-over-year inflation reaching 9.1%, the highest rate since 1981. According to a recent Bloomberg survey, the probability of a recession over the next 12 months is 47.5%, up from 30% in June. Yikes! There is an air of inevitability around the markets at the moment. Investors never truly know for sure, but many do strongly expect energy concerns to linger, food prices to bounce back, and a painful recession to be around the corner. There’s no doubting that September and the months beyond are going to be a tough watch. How did we do? Did we miss a key warning sign? Is a recession approaching? How have you adjusted your trading strategy to cope with it? Let us know by tweeting us at @_Contentworks. Top trading events this week Here are the hottest events for your trading calendar this week. Monday No major events are planned. Tuesday ● AUD — Westpac Consumer Confidence Index (AUG) Wednesday ● CNY — Inflation Rate YoY (JUL) ● EUR — Inflation Rate YoY Final (JUL) ● USD — Core Inflation Rate YoY (JUL); Inflation Rate YoY (JUL) Thursday ● CNY — New Yuan Loans (JUL) ● USD — PPI MoM (JUL) Friday ● GBP — GDP 3-Month Avg (JUN); GDP Growth Rate YoY Prel (Q2); ● GDP YoY (JUN) ● USD — Michigan Consumer Sentiment Prel (AUG) Here at Contentworks we closely follow market movements and prep content that we think your traders would love to read. Let’s get you started right here. The Contentworks team
Leaders come and go, but the markets always remain… right? Today, we’ll investigate the impact recent leader-switching has had on the markets. After that, we’ll delve into the top fundamental events to watch out for this week. Let’s go! A tale of two PMs What do Boris Johnson and Mario Draghi have in common? Unless you’ve been living under a rock for the last few weeks, you’ll probably know the answer. Both PMs have, of course, resigned this summer. But the initial impact on the markets couldn’t have been more different. Bye-bye Boris! On 7 July UK PM, Boris Johnson, announced that he would be stepping down following insurmountable pressure from his cabinet and the parliamentary Conservative party. The news was actually taken pretty well by the markets. The pound traded higher, up 0.6% against the US dollar and up 0.4% against the euro, recovering slightly from two-year lows hit earlier in the week. The FTSE 100 also jumped 1.1% on hearing the news. FTSE 100 Source: Google So, it was a pretty fond farewell for the blundering blonde, received very well by the markets. Dragh-ing it out Like BoJo, former Italy PM Mario Draghi didn’t exactly jump off the ship at the first opportunity. The PM finally resigned on 21 July, having had his resignation denied by the President just a few weeks before. Unlike Boris, however, the markets weren’t quite as celebratory this time around. Mr. Draghi’s resignation and the uncertainty around the upcoming election hit Italian financial markets hard, with the FTSE MIB index of the top 40 Italian companies slumping by around 2%. As this heavily impacted the Eurozone’s third-largest economy, the euro weakened against the dollar. Why the difference? While the UK currently faces many struggles — Brexit and a cost of living crisis — investors have relative confidence that with the next UK PM, things will bounce back. With a sizeable Conservative parliamentary majority and immediate plans announced to find a successor, all is going to plan and the status quo should be resumed in no time. On the flip-side, Italy couldn’t be more in trouble if it tried. Unlike the UK, Draghi’s resignation came after his coalition fell apart and he couldn’t gain support to create another. Basically, no one wants a slice of his particular flavour of political pizza. There is no plan and that’s not good. The markets hate uncertainty. Quite frankly, we’re not a big fan either. Right now, uncertainty is Italy’s middle name, and that’s a scary thought for such an important European economy. Have your say! Do you think other factors are at play here? What do you think is next for these two economies? Let us know by tweeting us at @_Contentworks. Top trading events this week We should see quite a quiet week in the markets, here are the hottest events for your trading calendar. Monday ● USD — ISM Manufacturing PMI (JUL) Tuesday ● AUD — RBA Interest Rate Decision Wednesday ● AUD — Employment Change QoQ (Q2); Unemployment Rate (Q2) ● GBP — S&P Global/CIPS UK Services PMI Final (JUL); ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (JUL) Thursday ● GBP — BoE Interest Rate Decision ● CAD — Balance of Trade (JUN) Friday ● AUD — RBA Statement on Monetary Policy ● CAD — Employment Change (JUL); Unemployment Rate (JUL) ● USD — Non-Farm Payrolls (JUL); Unemployment Rate (JUL) Here at Contentworks we closely follow market movements and prep content that we think your traders would love to read. Let’s get you started right here. The Contentworks team
2022 was meant to be THE boom year for travel, following 2.5 years of lockdowns. So how’s it going? And how are those travel stocks looking? Read on to find out. Keep reading after that and we’ll even let you know what fundamental events are worth checking out this week. Not exactly “take-off”… just yet Ongoing COVID-19 travel restrictions, reported resurgent sub-variants of Omicron, and Russia’s war in Ukraine have really put the brakes on what should have been a massive comeback summer for the travel industry. Despite all of this, there can be no denying that there’s a hugely significant amount of demand built up for travelling again, and ultimately, a few companies (and individuals) are to win big on all of that tourism when the comeback is finally on. 4 Top Travel Stocks All of the companies on the following list had a pretty bad starts to the year on paper. But that’s indicative of the entire industry. What we think these companies have done well is set themselves up for the bounce-back, making them worth serious consideration. #1 Airbnb (ABNB) Everyone’s favourite holiday home platform now boasts over 5 million listings across 220 countries and regions. The paradigm shift toward remote working appears to be one of the biggest lasting influences of the pandemic, and Airbnb is benefiting — massively. Millions of people around the world are now working while they travel, and extended-stay bookings were a top area of growth for Airbnb in 2021. Pre-lockdowns, Airbnb had seen a rapid rise to the top of the tourism industry. Having adapted through the crisis well, it appears well poised to restart the growth that made it a household name. Definitely one to watch! Price on 01.01: $172.68 Price on 22.07: $103.97 % change YTD: -39.79% Source: Google #2 Walt Disney Holdings (DIS) Disney is a mainstay in our articles on top travel stocks — and for good reason. Unlike others on our list, this stock has two massive positives. First, it’s a very diverse stock, covering media networks, physical locations, studio entertainment (Star Wars, Marvel, etc. franchises), and consumer products — which means investors are effectively hedging when buying into it. Second, it’s not as drastically impacted by the war in Ukraine as most of its physical locations are in the US. Disney’s international theme parks are always popular destinations, although ongoing restrictions may make a dent in any potential growth. Yet, because of that behemoth portfolio, Disney can still grow massively. Cinemas are open and Disney continues to have a solid year as its burgeoning entertainment portfolio engages audiences the world over — Obi Wan Kenobi, anyone? Price on 01.01: $156.75 Price on 22.07: $102.72 % change YTD: -34.47% Source: Google #3 Royal Caribbean Cruises (RCL) Royal Caribbean is the second largest cruise line operator in the world and it includes three popular subsidiary cruise lines: Royal Caribbean International, Celebrity Cruises and Silversea Cruises. RCL predict that the company will actually reach pre-covid passenger levels within the next year, with very high bookings recorded for the summer and throughout 2022 in general. The company is also implementing aggressive hiring efforts to overcome the staffing shortages that are plaguing airlines right now. Yes, the stock price is down 57% this year, but over the long-term, Royal Caribbean is proving it has the ability to adjust to rapidly changing economic conditions. This should warrant the serious consideration of any investor. Price on 01.01: $80.83 Price on 22.07: $34.87 % change YTD: -56.86% Source: Google #4 Booking Holdings (BKNG) Booking.com operates several aggregators and metasearch engines for airline tickets, hotels and car rentals. That always makes it a go-to company for holidaymakers. It owns and operates some of the biggest sites in the biz, including: ● Booking.com ● Kayak.com ● Agoda ● Priceline.com ● Rentalcars.com When the pandemic hit, the company raised large amounts of capital, while also cutting costs — slashing its global workforce to save more than $300 million annually. A cash reserve in the billions, the range of products it has to offer, and all that pent-up demand put Booking in the perfect position to win the bounce back. Its stock is priced pretty nicely at the moment, too… Price on 01.01: $2,461.42 Price on 22.07: $1,809.88 % change YTD: -26.47% Source: Google What do you think? Is now the right time to start reinvesting in travel stocks? Have you already? Let us know what you think and why by tweeting us at @_contentworks. Top trading events this week It’s going to be a packed week! Here’s everything you need to know. Monday ● EUR — Germany, Ifo Business Climate (JUL) Tuesday ● USD — CB Consumer Confidence (JUL) Wednesday ● AUD — Inflation Rate YoY (Q2) ● USD — Durable Goods Orders MoM (JUN); Fed Interest Rate Decision; Fed Press Conference Thursday ● USD — GDP Growth Rate QoQ Adv (Q2) Friday ● EUR — Germany, Unemployment Change (JUL); Unemployment Rate (JUL); GDP Growth Rate YoY Flash (Q2) ● USD — Core PCE Price Index YoY (JUN); PCE Price Index YoY (JUN); Michigan Consumer Sentiment Final (JUL) Saturday No significant events are scheduled. Sunday ● CNY — NBS Manufacturing PMI (JUL) Here at Contentworks we closely follow market movements and prep content that we think your traders would love to read. Let’s get you started right here. Speak soon! The Contentworks team
Last week was yet another tumultuous one for the UK. Today, we’ll investigate what impact it’s already had on the island nation. After that, we’ll delve into the top fundamental events to watch out for this week. Shall we? BoJo gets the boot In case you live on Mars and missed it, last week UK PM, Boris Jonson, announced that he will be stepping down following insurmountable pressure from his cabinet and the parliamentary Conservative party. The Prime Minister’s handling of ethical scandals had been consistently placed under the microscope over the last 12 months. The news was actually taken well by the markets. The pound traded higher, up 0.6% against the US dollar and up 0.4% against the euro, recovering slightly from two-year lows hit earlier in the week. However, that little blip didn’t do much to paper over the cracks that the FTSE 100 was showing over the previous few days. It has, so far, failed to make up that ground, though it’s making good progress. FTSE 100 Source: Google Johnson also announced that he would remain at the helm in Downing Street until a successor is chosen. That process is now underway, with Rishi Sunak, Penny Mordaunt, and Liz Truss the leading contenders. Just the latest in a long list of problems This latest twist joins the impending recession, the war in Ukraine and dealing with fears over new sub-variants of Omicron on the list of issues facing the UK. Whoever the new PM ultimately turns out to be, they will have to deal with all of that and tackle the following… #1 The UK has the highest inflation in the G7 Brought on partially by the lingering impact of Covid and the supply shortages that have resulted from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, food and energy costs have soared, helping to plunge the country into a cost-of-living crisis. Annual average household energy bills could rise by a whopping 50%, up to £3,000 this winter. Rather scarily, these rising costs are being met with stagnating incomes. The Resolution Foundation has found that typical wages in the UK are no higher today than they were before the 2008 financial crisis. Perfect storm brewing? UK inflation hit a new 40-year high of 9.1% in May and is forecast to climb over 11% later this year — eek! #2 And nearly the lowest growth levels The fifth-largest economy in the world effectively ground to a halt earlier this year, with all three major sectors of the economy — services, manufacturing and construction — going backwards. Retail is also floundering, as the public desperately cut back their spending due to those rising costs and stagnant incomes. To make matters worse, the OECD last month forecast that the UK economy was heading for zero growth in GDP in 2023. That would amount to the worst performance in the G7 next year. Crucially, this means that the next prime minister will have their hands tied, unable to make big tax cuts or spending pledges. #3 While Brexit hasn’t exactly worked out… yet How could we leave this one out? Aside from scandal after scandal, his ability to “Get Brexit done”, will likely be Boris’ ultimate legacy. We’re not sure he’d be too proud of that, though. For many businesses, the tariff-free trade deal has done little but massively increase customs paperwork, making it harder for them to sell while also increasing the cost of their imports. Other trade deals have hardly been effective at this point. The shadow of Brexit still looms large over the UK economy and a meaningful direction is sorely needed. Looking at all of that, all we can say is — “Good luck, [INSERT NAME OF NEW PM]. You’re going to need it!” Have your say! Who do you think will become the next PM? Do you think they have what it takes to steer the UK to calmer waters? We’d love for you to let us know by tweeting us at @_Contentworks. Top trading events this week We should see quite a quiet week in the markets, here are the hottest events for your trading calendar. Monday ● NZD — Inflation Rate YoY (Q2) Tuesday ● GBP — Employment Change (APR); Unemployment Rate (MAY) ● EUR — Core Inflation Rate YoY Final (JUN) Wednesday ● GBP — Core Inflation Rate YoY (JUN); Inflation Rate YoY (JUN) ● CAD — Core Inflation Rate MoM (JUN); Core Inflation Rate YoY (JUN); Inflation Rate YoY (JUNE) Thursday ● JPY — BoJ Interest Rate Decision; BoJ Quarterly Outlook Report ● EUR — ECB Interest Rate Decision Friday ● JPY — Inflation Rate YoY (JUN) ● GBP — S&P Global/CIPS Manufacturing PMI Flash (JUL) Here at Contentworks we closely follow market movements and prep content that we think your traders would love to read. Let’s get you started right here. The Contentworks team
Ice cream. It’s the universally accepted best dessert ever. Right? Ahead of US National Ice Cream day (17 July), we thought we’d highlight some of the top ice cream stocks that you can trade right now. Then we’ll rundown the critical fundamental events coming up this week. Grab yourself a bowl of the good stuff and let’s drool over some ice cream stocks. The crème de la crème Here are the top 3 ice cream stocks that you might like the taste of right now… #1 Nestle Nestlé are a controversial pick due to their general public unpopularity over food and water scandals around the world. But this is the world of finance and their stocks are in our top 3. Nestlé owns Dreyer’s and recently sold its US Hagen Dazs’ business to Froneri — a joint venture that it owns with PAI Partners. Top-selling Nestlé sub-brands, such as KitKat and Toblerone also have popular ice cream products. This all makes the chocolate-maker a mega ice cream incorporated. Price 01.01: 129 CHF Price 08.07: 114.64 CHF % change 2022: -11.28% Nestlé stock, 2022 Source: Google Nestlé stock is down 11.28% in 2022, but has shown signs of a resurgence in July so far. Food companies tend to do pretty okay in a recessionary environment because they offer staples that everyone needs to continue buying, regardless. And who doesn’t need to reach for the ice cream to cheer them up on a random Tuesday/Wednesday/Thursday night?! As one of the world’s largest food conglomerates, investing in Nestlé might not exactly freeze your returns. No guarantees. #2 Unilever The monster UK-based conglomerate boasts a portfolio of hundreds of household brands, particularly in the home-cleaning sector, but also many foodstuffs, including that cheeky, premium (it’s really expensive in case you hadn’t noticed) ice cream fave — Ben & Jerry’s. The company also owns the more moderately-priced, globally-gigantically-popular brands Cornetto and Magnum that you probably have lodged in your freezer somewhere. Unilever stock is down a moderate 3.67% so far in 2022. It’s performed pretty poorly over the last 5 years. But don’t write it off just yet, “poorly” in this context is a ca. 15% return on investment per annum. So, not too bad, right? Price 01.01: 3,996.00 GBX Price 08.07: 3,849.50 GBX % change 2022: -3.67% Unilever stock, 2022 Source: Google #3 General Mills That Hagen Dazs joint-venture we mentioned above covers the US and Canada only, the global licence to sell one of the world’s most popular brands of ice cream is held by General Mills. * He’s not related to Colonel Sanders — we Googled it. The US-based company is on a winning streak right now, hitting an all-time high that seems to just keep going. The company’s revenue rose 8% year over year to $4.89 billion, which smashed estimates by a whopping $80 million! While the S&P500 is down 20% in 2022, General Mills is up over 12%, so these guys are doing something right. What is that, you ask? Well, as we mentioned before, a portfolio of some of the most recognisable food brands in the world is a great thing to have in your pocket during a recession. As well as Hagen Dazs, General Mills owns Cheerios, Yoplait, Betty Crocker, Green Giant, and Pillsbury. Price 01.01: 67.26 USD Price 08.07: 75.54 USD % change 2022: +12.31% General Mills stock, 2022 Source: Google Your turn! What’s your favourite ice cream flavour? Which of these stocks do you think will perform best in the second half of 2022? Tweet us at @_contentworks! Top fundamental events this week Here are all of the main events coming up this week. Monday ● CNY — New Yuan Loans (JUN) Tuesday ● EUR — ZEW Economic Sentiment Index (JUL) Wednesday ● AUD — Westpac Consumer Confidence Index (JUL) ● GBP — GDP 3-Month Avg (MAY); GDP YoY (MAY) ● USD — Core Inflation Rate YoY (JUN); Inflation Rate YoY (JUN) ● CAD — BoC Interest Rate Decision Thursday ● AUD — Employment Change (JUN); Unemployment Rate (JUN) ● USD — PPI MoM (JUN) Friday ● CNY — GDP Growth Rate YoY (Q2) ● USD — Retail Sales MoM (JUN); Michigan Consumer Sentiment Prel (JUL) Here at Contentworks we closely follow market movements and prep content that we think your traders would love to read. Let’s get you started right here. Speak soon! The Contentworks team
With so many global financial issues right now, here’s what’s keeping traders up at night. After that, we’ll update you on the key fundamental events of the week. Let’s go! Losing sleep? No wonder! Here are the top 4 issues on most traders minds right now. #1 The impending recession Ever growing fears of the impending, and long overdue, next recession are sure to be weighing on traders minds in the early hours. The S&P 500 has now dropped 20.25% over the last 6 months, making it an official bear market, which is only adding to the warning signs. Source: Google Recessions bring huge volatility and that can force traders out of the market as they decide to move their investments into other instruments in an attempt to hedge against this volatility. Traders who haven’t done that yet will be having nightmares for sure. #2 Ukraine This needs no introduction. Now 4-months into the conflict in Ukraine, uncertainty in the markets is still abound. The economic sanctions that have been placed on Russia have really shaken up the markets too. The biggest areas of impact are on energy and food prices. With the Versailles Declaration agreed in March 2022, the EU leaders of the 27 member states agreed to phase out the EU’s dependence on Russian fossil fuels as soon as possible. Traders are watching this story as it continues to develop. #3 Oil prices Oil prices are continuing to rise, not least because of the impact of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. WTI/USD is up to 108.48, a 42.79% increase since the beginning of the year. Source: Trading view It’s not only the impact of war in Ukraine, though. The effect of government enforced lockdowns is still being felt. The decline in demand resulted in a drop in production. Now the heavily increased demand has hit producers who are struggling to meet that demand, creating the perfect storm. #4 More Covid Restrictions We couldn’t not mention this. Despite the fact that lockdowns and restrictions are well behind us, variants are still being touted as a threat to the freedom of movement. UK infections are reportedly on the rise, up 30% week on week. Source: Google Investors will be watching rising cases with great interest, knowing what previous surges have brought with them. It’s worth remembering that with volatility comes opportunity — but also extremely high-risk. You must practice control and caution and to manage both of those, you need a good night’s sleep. So, get your forty-winks — you’re going to need it. How are you sleeping? Do you agree with our list, or is anything else worrying you right now? Let us know by tweeting us at @_contentworks. Top fundamental events this week It looks like a relatively quiet week ahead. Here are all of the must-watch events to look out for. Monday No significant events are expected. Monday is the July 4th holiday in the USA. Tuesday ● AUD — RBA Interest Rate Decision ● GBP — S&P Global/CIPS UK Services PMI Final (JUN) Wednesday ● USD — ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (JUN); FOMC Minutes Thursday ● CAD — Balance of Trade (MAY) Friday ● CAD — Employment Change (JUN); Unemployment Rate (JUN) ● USD — Non-Farm Payrolls (JUN); Unemployment Rate (JUN) Here at Contentworks we closely follow market movements and prep content that we think your traders would love to read. Let’s get you started right here. Speak soon! The Contentworks team
Some analysts believe the markets are rapidly approaching bear territory, while others think we’re already there. Today we’re looking at the best instruments to trade in a bear market. After that, we’ll take our usual plunge into outlining the top fundamental events to watch out for this week. What’s a Bear Market? Imagine how a bull or a bear would attack their prey. A bull typically raises its horns upward, while a bear strikes with its claws downward. So, a bear market is one that is trending down for a consistent period of time. Learn about the bull and bear markets with our animated video. https://medium.com/media/071fc30c28937191b066b3cf572725cd/hrefAs a general rule, a bear market is when the overall stock market drops in value by 20% or more from recent highs. What To Trade When The Market Is Like This? Bear markets are notoriously tricky to predict and manage. By the time you realise we’re there, prices are already down 20% from their recent highs. The good news is these things aren’t knee-jerk. The average bear market sticks around long enough to give investors plenty of time to respond. This means that you have time to adapt your trading strategy. But how? Diversification. There are a few asset classes that are known to rise during market downturns. These include: #1 Bonds Fixed-income securities have been used by investors in downturns as they typically rise in value when stocks fall. One thing to watch is US treasuries bonds, as they’re backed by the largest economy in the world. Despite concerns about the financial health of the country, US government bonds are seen as being among the world’s safest. #2 Precious metals Gold and silver are both viewed as safe haven assets. This tends to mean that investors flock to them during financial crises, pushing up prices. As you can see from the chart below, gold is yet to receive a big price swing as a result of increased investment and is still priced relatively well. XAU/USD Source: Tradingview #3 Defensive stocks Defensive stocks belong to companies that are usually less affected by downturns than the rest of the market. These companies are often those that experience continued demand for their products, despite difficult time. Defensive stocks include consumer staples like FedEx (FDX), General Motors (GM), and Walmart (WMT). Do you agree? What will you be trading in the bear market? Have you already shifted your trading strategy? Let us know by tweeting us at @_Contentworks. Top Trading Events Week Commencing 27.06.22 We should see quite a busy week in the markets, here are the hottest events for your trading calendar. Monday ● EUR — ECB Forum on Central Banking ● USD — Durable Goods Orders MoM (MAY) Tuesday ● EUR — ECB Forum on Central Banking; GfK Consumer Confidence (JUL) ● USD — CB Consumer Confidence (JUN) Wednesday ● EUR — ECB Forum on Central Banking, ECB President Lagarde Speech ● USD — GDP Growth Rate QoQ Final (Q1), Fed Chair Powell Speech ● GBP — BoE Governor Bailey Speech Thursday ● CNY — NBS Manufacturing PMI (JUN) ● GBP — GDP Growth Rate YoY Final (Q1) ● EUR — Germany Unemployment Change (JUN); Germany Unemployment Rate (JUN); ECB President Lagarde Speech ● USD — Core PCE Price Index YoY (MAY); PCE Price Index YoY (MAY) Friday ● EUR — Core Inflation Rate YoY Flash (JUN) ● USD — ISM Manufacturing PMI (JUN) Here at Contentworks we closely follow market movements and prep content that we think your traders would love to read. Let’s get you started right here. The Contentworks team