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Halloween is synonymous with costumes, candy, and spooky stories. But that’s not all. Over the years, October 31 has also been a day of significant financial events. From stock market crashes to major corporate moves, Halloween has left its mark on the world of finance in some weird ways. These are spooky, especially #5.1. Halloween Massacre of 2006 — Canada’s Income Trust ChangesOn October 31, 2006, the Canadian government, led by Prime Minister Stephen Harper, announced a sudden policy shift that would tax income trusts, effectively ending their tax-advantaged status. Before this change, income trusts were popular with investors because they allowed corporations to avoid corporate income taxes, distributing profits directly to investors. This Halloween surprise wiped billions off the value of trusts, and the day became known as the “Halloween Massacre” in Canadian financial history.2. The Beginning of the End for Lehman Brothers (2007)One year before the global financial crisis reached its peak, on Halloween in 2007, Lehman Brothers reported significant losses from its mortgage-related assets. Although the firm hadn’t yet collapsed, these early signs of trouble foreshadowed the catastrophic events of 2008. By September 2008, Lehman Brothers filed for the largest bankruptcy in U.S. history, triggering a domino effect that led to the financial crisis.3. Japan’s Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi Merger (1995)On October 31, 1995, two of Japan’s largest banks, the Bank of Tokyo and Mitsubishi Bank, announced a merger that created the Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi, which at the time became the world’s largest bank by assets. This move was part of Japan’s broader efforts to deal with its own financial challenges in the 1990s, following the collapse of the country’s asset price bubble.4. Brexit Reboot: Bank of England Rate Cut Signals (2019)On Halloween in 2019, the Bank of England made headlines by hinting at a potential interest rate cut, depending on the economic impact of Brexit. With the UK set to leave the European Union, the uncertainty had affected markets and currency exchange rates. Although Brexit was ultimately delayed until early 2020, this Halloween event reflected the mounting financial anxieties in the run-up to the historic exit.5. The New York Stock Exchange Plunge of 1929Though the infamous “Black Tuesday” occurred on October 29, 1929, Halloween that year witnessed the aftermath of the Great Crash as panic spread through global markets. The New York Stock Exchange remained chaotic throughout the week, with massive sell-offs continuing as investors scrambled to protect their assets. The Halloween aftermath solidified the start of the Great Depression, one of the darkest periods in financial history.6. The End of the Bretton Woods System (1971)Halloween 1971 marked a pivotal moment in international finance as the U.S. formally abandoned the Bretton Woods system of fixed exchange rates, following President Nixon’s decision earlier that year to suspend the dollar’s convertibility into gold. The dollar began floating freely against other currencies, and this shift ultimately transformed global foreign exchange markets. This move is seen as the dawn of the modern era of floating exchange rates.7. GM’s Second Bankruptcy Rumours (2013)On October 31, 2013, General Motors (GM) was battling rumours of a second potential bankruptcy following its 2009 collapse and subsequent government bailout. The rumours caused GM’s stock to drop and sparked discussions about the company’s long-term viability. Although GM managed to survive, the Halloween scare underscored the fragile state of the American auto industry during the recovery period.While Halloween is often associated with ghost stories and horror films, it has also proven to be a significant date in financial history. From stock market plunges to strategic corporate acquisitions, October 31 has witnessed events that shaped economies, industries, and markets.Coincidence or something spookier? Leave your comments below and Happy Halloween!
It might seem like we say this every month but, October is a pivotal month in the financial markets, earning a reputation for both volatility and significant economic events. Historically, it has witnessed major stock market crashes, earnings reports, economic data releases, and central bank decisions that shape the outlook for global economies and markets. Of course we are going to be talking about Halloween later in the month too.🎃 But for now, let’s explore the key financial market events that typically occur in October, along with notable trend comparisons from 2023.1. Third-Quarter Earnings SeasonOctober marks the beginning of the third-quarter earnings season, where publicly traded companies release their financial performance for July through September. For example, reports from tech giants like Apple, Amazon, and Microsoft, as well as financial institutions like JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs, often set the tone for market sentiment.Significance: Earnings reports can cause sharp movements in stock prices. Better-than-expected results often lead to price rallies, while disappointing numbers may trigger sell-offs. Beyond individual companies, these earnings offer insights into broader economic trends, such as consumer demand, corporate profitability, and inflation pressures.2023 Insight: The earnings season in October 2023 came under the shadow of inflationary pressures and rising interest rates. Investors closely watched how companies managed their margins amid increased borrowing costs, particularly in sectors like technology and real estate.2. Federal Reserve Meeting Minutes and Policy UpdatesOctober often sees the release of the Federal Reserve’s meeting minutes from September, as well as updates on monetary policy. Investors closely scrutinise these minutes for any clues about the Fed’s outlook on inflation, interest rates, and economic growth. The central bank’s policies have a profound impact on financial markets, particularly in terms of bond yields, stock prices, and the strength of the U.S. dollar.Significance: If the Fed signals a more hawkish stance (raising interest rates), bond yields may rise, and stock prices could drop as borrowing becomes more expensive. Conversely, dovish signals (indicating a pause or cut in rates) tend to be bullish for equity markets, as it indicates easier financial conditions.2023 Insight: In October 2023, the Federal Reserve was grappling with stubborn inflation and mixed economic data. Speculation over further interest rate hikes or a potential pause contributed to market volatility, especially in fixed-income and equity markets.3. Stock Market Volatility — The “October Effect”We love the spookiness of this month and it is relevant to the finance space! October has historically been known for its volatility, earning the nickname “The October Effect.” The 1929 Great Depression and the 1987 Black Monday stock market crash both occurred in October, leading to a psychological association with turbulence. While this is not necessarily rooted in economic data, market participants often anticipate heightened volatility during this month.Significance: Volatility presents both opportunities and risks for traders and investors. Large price swings can create openings for short-term gains, but they also amplify risks, particularly for those holding leveraged positions or highly speculative assets.2023 Insight: In October 2023, market volatility was fueled by concerns about the Federal Reserve’s rate hike path, geopolitical tensions, and mixed corporate earnings reports. Uncertainty over inflation and consumer spending added to the nervousness, especially as the bond market reacted to higher interest rates.4. Global Geopolitical DevelopmentsGeopolitical events frequently move markets, and October is a month where such developments often come to a head. Trade tensions, elections, and international conflicts can cause sudden shifts in investor sentiment. For example, news of political instability in a major country or the escalation of trade wars can disrupt supply chains and negatively affect corporate earnings forecasts.Significance: Markets are highly sensitive to political risks, particularly those related to trade, energy prices, and regulatory changes. Currency markets are often the most directly impacted by geopolitical uncertainty, as investors seek safe-haven assets like gold or the U.S. dollar during periods of instability.2023 Insight: In 2023, geopolitical tensions in Eastern Europe and the Middle East continued to weigh on markets. The Russian-Ukraine conflict and U.S/ China trade relations remained central concerns, influencing commodity prices (especially oil and gas) and market volatility.5. U.S. Labor Market Data and Inflation ReportsThe U.S. labor market report, typically released in the first week of October, is a crucial indicator of economic health. Investors track the unemployment rate, job creation, and wage growth to gauge the strength of the economy. Meanwhile, inflation data (CPI and PPI reports) in October offer clues about the trajectory of price increases and how the Federal Reserve may react.Significance: Strong job growth and rising wages suggest a robust economy, but they may also signal inflationary pressures, which could prompt tighter monetary policy. Inflation data is particularly important for bond and currency markets, as higher inflation generally erodes bond returns and impacts exchange rates.2023 Insight: In October 2023, the U.S. labor market remained tight, with unemployment hovering near historic lows. However, wage growth showed signs of moderating, a key factor the Federal Reserve monitored when deciding whether further interest rate hikes were necessary. Inflation remained a central concern, particularly in energy and food prices.6. International Monetary Fund (IMF) and World Bank Annual MeetingsThe IMF and World Bank hold their annual meetings in October, drawing policymakers, central bankers, and economists from around the world. These meetings often focus on global economic challenges like debt sustainability, economic development, and climate change.Significance: The meetings serve as a platform for major policy announcements and economic forecasts. Any updates from these institutions on global growth projections, inflation, or debt risks can move markets, particularly in emerging economies that rely on international financing.2023 Insight: In October 2023, discussions at the IMF and World Bank meetings centered on global inflation, supply chain disruptions, and the economic impact of geopolitical tensions. Emerging markets faced increasing challenges from rising interest rates and capital outflows, while developed markets focused on balancing inflation control with economic growth.7. Energy Markets and OPEC MeetingsEnergy markets, particularly oil and natural gas, are closely watched in October, as this is often when the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) holds key meetings. OPEC’s production decisions can have a significant impact on global energy prices, which in turn affect inflation, corporate profitability, and consumer spending.Significance: A rise in oil prices can trigger inflationary pressures across economies, affecting everything from transportation to manufacturing. Conversely, falling prices can ease inflation but may signal weaker global demand, which is often a concern for global growth.2023 Insight: In 2023, OPEC continued to struggle with the balance between maintaining oil prices and managing production levels. Energy prices remained elevated, contributing to inflationary pressures in both developed and emerging economies, while energy stocks saw increased volatility.October is a month of heightened importance in the financial markets, with a combination of earnings reports, central bank policy updates, geopolitical developments, and economic data releases influencing investor sentiment. While the “October Effect” suggests the potential for volatility, it is the underlying economic conditions and corporate performance that ultimately drive market movements.Contentworks Agency is the leading marketing agency for the financial services sector. Book a free call with our team to talk about your forex, fintech or banking marketing.
Autumn is upon us and we’re gearing up for a busy September with loads of market-moving events on the horizon. Today, we’ll guide you through a few of the most notable ones. Let’s do this!(Potential) market-moving events in SeptemberThere are quite a few potentials for this list, but we’ve limited ourselves to three, for the sake of brevity. They include the European Central Bank’s monetary policy meeting, the United States Federal Reserve meeting, and some key economic data releases from China.1. European Central Bank (ECB) Monetary Policy MeetingWe won’t have to wait long for the ECB’s meeting on September 12. This highly anticipated event seems all the more important now, given the delicate balance the eurozone economy faces between slowing growth and constant inflation hikes.The ECB has been busy raising interest rates to fight inflation, but further tightening could slow the economy down even more.If the ECB does decide to raise rates, the euro might strengthen against other major currencies, as higher interest rates tend to attract more foreign investment. However, if the ECB pauses rate hikes (which they might do if they feel overly concerned about the economy), the euro could weaken, creating volatility and trading opportunities in euro-based currency pairs.2. United States Federal Reserve MeetingThe US Federal Reserve’s September 18 meeting will be keenly monitored by traders and brokers alike, especially as the US economy has recently shown signs of slowing down a bit, with high inflation still a concern. Against that backdrop, the Fed faces a very tough choice. They either continue raising rates or pause them, to prevent an even deeper economic slowdown.If the Fed does choose to raise rates, the US dollar could strengthen. If that happens, it could potentially impact USD currency pairs like EUR/USD, GBP/USD, and USD/JPY. But, if the Fed chooses to hold fire on a potential rate cut, the dollar could weaken, leading to increased market volatility and opportunities for forex traders.Yeah — you’re going to want to keep an eye on this one!3. China’s Economic Data ReleasesA blockbuster bulk announcement of China’s economic data, including GDP growth, industrial production, and retail sales, will be coming on September 20. As we all know, China is a production powerhouse and these figures, while usually important, are crucial to traders and brokers at the moment.Why? Well, China’s economy is riding a bit of a bumpy road in terms of slowing growth and rising debt. The government is doing it’s best by imposing stimulus measures, but so far, no good.Weak GDP or industrial production data could lead to a weakening of the Chinese yuan (CNY) and increased demand for safe-haven currencies like the US dollar and Japanese yen, as traders look to maintain their wealth.But, strong data could bolster the yuan, impacting currency pairs linked to the Chinese economy and creating opportunities for brokers to capitalise on market shifts.Your Turn!Brokers, what’s your key focus this month? What patterns are you observing with your traders? Let us know on X at @_contentworks.Top fundamental events this monthOn top of the major potential events, we’ve put together a quick list of a bunch of other fundamental things that might make the markets swing this month.September 2–8● CNY — Chinese Caixin Manufacturing PMI; Chinese Balance of Trade● USD — ISM Manufacturing PMI; ADP National Employment Report; ISM Services PMI; Nonfarm Payrolls; Unemployment Rate● AUD — GDP Growth Rate QoQ; Balance of Trade● CAD — Balance of Trade; BoC Interest Rate Decision; Unemployment RateSeptember 9–15● AUD — Westpac Consumer Confidence Change● GBP — Unemployment Rate; GDP MoM; Manufacturing Production MoM/YoY● USD — Inflation Rate MoM/YoY; PPI MoM● EUR — ECB Interest Rate Decision;September 16–22● CAD — Inflation Rate YoY● USD — Retail Sales Ex Autos MoM; Retail Sales MoM; FOMC Economic Projections; Federal Funds Rate● JPY — Balance of Trade● GBP — Inflation Rate YoYSeptember 23–30● AUD — RBA Interest Rate Decision; CPI● EUR — German Ifo Business Climate; French Inflation Rate YoY Prel● USD — CB Consumer Confidence; GDP Growth Rate QoQ Final; Durable Goods Orders; Personal Spending MoM; Personal IncomeHere at Contentworks we closely follow market movements and prep content that we think your traders would love to read. Let’s get you started.Speak soon!The Contentworks team
All eyes are on the market-moving events coming up in August and what lies ahead in September. As the leading financial services marketing agency, we’ll look at a few of the financial showstoppers! Let’s go.1. It’s earnings reporting seasonYep, it’s that time of the year again!August is the peak of the earnings season for many large corporations. Brokers and investors will be keeping a keen eye on the quarterly reports from major tech giants, financial institutions, and consumer goods companies.Companies’ performance in the face of ongoing economic uncertainties, including supply chain disruptions and inflation, will be under scrutiny. Strong earnings could bolster market confidence, while disappointing results might trigger selloffs.Here’s a little overview of when companies declared their Q2 earnings last year and when you may be able to expect their announcements in 2024.2. The US Presidential ElectionJuly couldn’t have had more election-related attention-grabbing headlines if it tried.First, was the failed assassination attempt on Trump’s life, and then Joe Biden’s monumental U-turn on leading the Democrats into the election. Dare we guess what’s coming next? Well, we know that it’s looking more and more likely that Kamala Harris, Biden’s VP, will be the one to take over the reins ahead of the Democrat national convention in Chicago between August 19–22. If, for whatever reason, that doesn’t happen — there may well be some volatility in the markets. As for what happens in November, it looks way too close to call. It looks like Harris has erased Trump’s lead.Source: Economist3. Economic data releasesThere are economic releases and there are economic releases. A few biggies are coming over the next few weeks that will no doubt be dotted on most trader’s calendars, including:● US Employment Report: The non-farm payrolls report will provide insights into the health of the labour market. Strong job growth could give the US economy a big boost, potentially improving investor confidence. Weaker numbers might raise concerns about an overall economic slowdown.● Inflation Data: Traders will be monitoring CPI and PPI data for any signs of inflationary trends. Consistently high inflation might prompt the Fed to tighten its monetary policy, impacting interest rates and stock valuations — with clear implications for investment strategies.● GDP Reports: The preliminary GDP figures of major economies, including the US, countries in the Eurozone, the UK and China, offer a snapshot of economic growth in these key economies.More on those in a minute…Your Turn!Brokers, what’s your key focus this month? What patterns are you observing with your traders? Let us know on X at @_contentworks.Top fundamental events this monthOn top of the major potential events, we’ve put together a quick list of a bunch of other fundamental things that might make the markets swing this month.August 1–4● AUD — Balance of Trade● CNY — Chinese Caixin Manufacturing PMI● GBP — Official Bank Rate, GBP MPC Meeting Minutes● USD — ISM Manufacturing PMI● USD — Average Hourly Earnings MoM; Unemployment Rate; Nonfarm PayrollsAugust 5–11● USD — ISM Services PMI● AUD — RBA Interest Rate Decision● EUR — German Balance of Trade● AUD — NAB Business Confidence● CNY — Chinese Balance of Trade● CAD — Balance of Trade; Unemployment RateAugust 12–18● GBP — Unemployment Rate; Inflation Rate YoY; GDP MoM; Manufacturing Production MoM/YoY; GDP Growth Rate YoY Prel; Retail Sales MoM● USD — PPI MoM; Inflation Rate YoY; Inflation Rate MoM● JPY — GDP Growth Rate QoQ PrelvAugust 19–25● AUD — RBA Meeting Minutes● CAD — Inflation Rate YoY● JPY — Balance of Trade● USD — FOMC Minutes● EUR — German HCOB Manufacturing PMI FlashAugust 26–31● EUR — German Ifo Business Climate; German GfK Consumer Confidence; German Inflation Rate YoY Prel● USD — Durable Goods Orders; CB Consumer Confidence; Personal Spending MoM; Personal Income● CAD — GDP Growth Rate Annualized; GDP Growth Rate QoQHere at Contentworks we closely follow market movements and prep content your traders love to read. Let’s get you started.Speak soon!The Contentworks team
As a leading financial services marketing agency, we provide analysis, PR, articles, education centres and much more for our fintech, forex and banking clients. As we enter July and kick off H2, the markets are primed to hot up! Here’s a quick overview of all the important things due to happen this month that may impact market movements.1. Trump vs. Biden — the battle for the Oval Office continuesYou cannot have missed the news last week that these old (no pun intended) adversaries locked horns for their first debate ahead of the 2024 Presidential election in November.Okay, so the next (and last) official debate isn’t happening until 10 September, but there will be plenty of swings, misses and heavy blows before then — including in July.For a start, the Republican National Convention will be held in Milwaukee from 15–18 July. Aside from that, you may have noticed that Mr. Trump isn’t exactly evasive or shy when it comes to pushing his agenda. Expect a lot of bluff, bluster and return fire on an almost daily basis. Worries over Biden’s health surged after a poor display by the current PresidentWhile these spats may not affect the markets directly now, the way this race is going, will make traders sit up and take notice, preparing for the most likely outcome.2. The UK General ElectionIf you’re interested in market-moving elections, you don’t have to wait long. The UK General Election is happening much sooner — literally Thursday this week! Almost all polls have Labour projected to win the race for seats for the first time since 2005.UK General Election Polls, Source: BBCExpect GBP to experience volatility in the immediate aftermath of the election results. The markets are known to react strongly to political uncertainty, and a change in government can may well lead short-term fluctuations in the currency.As with the US election, there may be short-term fluctuations in the stock market as investors reassess their portfolios.3. General US Stock Market HistoryWhile it’s not strictly an event itself, since 1928, July has been the best month of the year, on average, in terms of stock-market performance. So the month is a spectacle in its own right.Over those 96 years, the S&P 500 SPX has experienced a gain of 1.7% in July and finished the month higher more than 60% of the time, according to Dow Jones Market Data. Likewise, since 1897 the Dow Jones Industrial Average has delivered an average monthly increase of 1.4% in July — clearly making July the best month of the year. The Dow has recorded positive returns in nearly 65% of the Julys since then.But don’t get too excited. The history books also tell us that July in election years are notoriously hit and miss. You’ve been warned!4. FOMC Meeting — Wednesday, July 31This is a biggie that a lot of investors will be keeping their eyes on. But what could happen? Many experts are expecting the Fed to hold rates steady at a target of 5.25%-5.50%, as the Fed still waits for inflation to ease a little more. It did the same in June and prior meetings, so no major change in that policy is expected.But expectations don’t always turn into reality…Your Turn!Brokers, what’s your key focus this month? What patterns are you observing with your traders? Let us know on X at @_contentworks.Top Fundamental Events This MonthOn top of the major potential events, we’ve put together a quick list of a bunch of other fundamentals that might make the markets swing this month.July 1–7● EUR — German Inflation Rate YoY (Preliminary)● USD — ISM Manufacturing PMI● USD — FOMC Minutes● GBP — UK General Election● USD — Non-farm Payrolls● USD — Unemployment RateJuly 8–14● GBP — GDP (MoM)● USD — Inflation Rate (MoM, YoY)● USD — PPI (MoMJuly 15–21● CAD — Inflation Rate (YoY)● USD — Retail Sales (MoM)● GBP — Inflation Rate (YoY)● EUR — ECB Interest Rate Decision● JPY — Inflation Rate YoY● GBP — Retail Sales MoMJuly 22–28● CAD — BoC Interest Rate Decision● USD — Personal Spending MoM● USD — Personal IncomeJuly 22–28● CNY — Chinese NBS Manufacturing PMI● JPY — BoJ Interest Rate Decision● USD — Employment Cost Index QoQ● USD — Fed Press ConferenceHere at Contentworks we closely follow market movements and prep content that we think your traders would love to read. Let’s get you started.Speak soon!The Contentworks teamPS — Happy Independence Day to our friends across the pond, and Happy Election Day to everyone in the UK!
We’re galloping into the June markets and our brokers are seeing increased acquisitions and positive uptake on lead gen campaigns in Africa, LATAM, the UK and more. So what are forex brokers watching in June? Here’s a roundup from our financial services marketing team.Central Bank Decisions in FocusOne of the main drivers of market movements in June will likely be the upcoming policy decisions from major central banks. If we had to pick out a single super-important event, we’d plump for the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting on June 11.If there are any adjustments to US interest rates, the repercussions will be felt across the markets and impact trading. The US dollar (USD) and associated pairs would likely experience fluctuations.The Bank of England (BoE) meeting on June 20 will have a similar impact on GBP. With the European Central Bank (ECB) meeting on June 8–9th potentially impacting the value of the euro (EUR).Keep up with compliance by reading our monthly Regulation Roundups.Geopolitical tensionsSadly, this one is always something we have to consider. With global conflicts going on around the world, there’s always a chance that destabilising events will impact the global economy. The war in Ukraine and the escalated situation in Israel/Palestine are just two of the areas that could cause problems for traders.Brokers, particularly those that deal with commodities like oil, gas, and gold — will be watching these events keenly and will need to be ready to act if prices start to swing.Spotlight on marketing and AIAs ever, the digital marketing landscape continues to evolve, with the upcoming Google Chrome update limiting third-party cookies set to impact how forex brokers reach their target audiences.This means that FX brokers need to shift toward more targeted and personalised marketing strategies. This is a good thing if you want to provide real value to your user base in a crowded financial services space.Because of this, you can expect to see an increased focus on the creation of high-quality content that resonates with specific trader demographics.Overuse of AI is also something that’s being clamped down on. Companies that heavily rely on AI to generate copy will find themselves increasingly in trouble. Google’s March update saw the company pledge to penalise websites that don’t provide original content designed to answer user queries. Speak to our team for a human rewrite of your financial services website.Upcoming eventsFor those seeking to stay updated with the latest trends and network with industry professionals, June offers a couple of nice events:● iFX EXPO Cyprus (June 8–20 June): This premier event brings together industry leaders, brokers, and technology providers for conferences, exhibitions, and workshops. Contentworks Agency is a returning media partner for the event and the team will be there for coffee and catchups.● FMA European Trading Expo Europe (12–14 June): The Financial Markets Association (FMA) hosts a series of trading expos in June, offering educational sessions and opportunities to connect with brokers and industry experts.Your turn!What are you looking forward to in June? Join the debate over on X at @_contentworks.Top fundamental events in June 2024Here are some of the events that are most likely to move the markets this month. No guarantees!June 3–9● USD — ISM Manufacturing PMI● AUD — GDP Growth Rate QoQ● CAD — BoC Interest Rate Decision● EUR — ECB Interest Rate Decision● USD — Unemployment Rate● USD — Nonfarm PayrollsJune 10–16● GBP — Unemployment Rate● GBP — GDP MoM● USD — Inflation Rate MoM● USD — Federal Funds Rate● USD — Fed Press ConferenceJune 17–23● GBP — Official Bank Rate● GBP — Inflation Rate YoYJune 24–30● CAD — Inflation Rate YoY● USD — GDP Growth Rate QoQ Final● USD — Core PCE Price Index MoMIf you enjoyed our broker focused roundup, please share it with your network and internal teams. Want compliant financial services marketing for your finance brand? Book a free Zoom call with our team.
On April 24, US President Joe Biden signed a bill to ban TikTok, the short-form video app owned by Chinese company ByteDance. But will it happen? And if so, what impact will it have? Explore these questions with us today. After that, we’ll go over all of the top fundamental events you can trade this week. Let’s go!Wait a tik, what’s this all about?The new law states that ByteDance must sell the platform to a US company within a year to avoid such an outright ban. The Chinese company then has nine months from that date to divest itself from the app, with a potential three-month extension if the authorities are feeling nice at the time.This isn’t a bolt out of the blue. Discussions about banning TikTok have been going on for a few years, with some politicians around the world accusing it of being a tool for Chinese propaganda and a security risk.Even before the law’s signing a bunch of TikTok bans across the US had barred the app from devices tied to universities and government hardware at the state, local, and federal levels.We know you didn’t ask, but if you want our opinion, we think the whole thing is pretty silly and probably emphasises that those in power don’t really understand social media, why it’s so popular and what it’s used for. Most experts agree that there’s no evidence the app has done any more damage or risked user privacy beyond what we’ve seen from companies like Facebook or Google.The bill — entitled The Protecting Americans from Foreign Adversary Controlled Applications Act (H.R. 7521) — passed the House of Representatives by 325–65. Though, we’re happy that Congress finally found something they agree on, it would be nice if it was something more important.Potential impact on businesses and creatorsIf the company doesn’t comply with the law and fails to find a US buyer, an outright ban would have a huge short-term impact on many content creators and small businesses who rely on the app.In case you didn’t know, there are a few different ways that people make money on the platform.TikTok pays some content creators based on views, but the payouts tend to be smaller than those offered by YouTube.Creators can also receive virtual gifts from viewers, meaning additional payouts.Creators make the most money by producing sponsored videos that advertise products.Many businesses produce their own TikTok content to reach new customers. According to TikTok, around 7 million US businesses rely on the platform and, in 2023, 224,000 jobs were supported by small business activity there.Last year, TikTok Shop, the platform’s e-commerce platform generated $1.1bn in gross merchandise revenue in the US. This is less than 1 per cent of Amazon’s GMR, but it’s growing fast.Quarterly revenues, 2017–2023Source: Business of AppsWill TikTok be bought?You might say the clock is tiktok-ing…Despite the growing popularity of the platform — boasting 150 million users in the US — so far, no one has come forward with a bid for the company. Some experts say that the business is likely valued at over $100 billion, so there aren’t many who can afford it even if they wanted to.The tech giants — Amazon, Microsoft, Google, or Meta — can all easily cough up this kind of cash, as could Mr. Musk. But most of them could get into some deep antitrust water for buying a direct competitor, which is a big no-no.Meta has already started working on coaxing tiktokkers over to its rival platform, Instagram, attempting to wipe the business out of the market altogether.It’s also unclear how much the business is worth the money that would need to be shelled out. TikTok’s number of active users declined in the final three months of last year and its downloads only increased by 4%. By comparison, Instagram saw an increase in active users of 13 million and a 20% increase in downloads.What will happen remains to be seen, but it’s hard to believe that one of the biggest social platforms in the world will be allowed to simply fizzle out in one of its most important markets.Popcorn at the ready!What’s your take?Do you think TikTok is a legitimate security threat to the US for it to be banned? What’s going to happen over the next 12 months? Share your thoughts with us on X at @_contentworks.Top fundamental events week commencing 06/05/24Here’s what’s coming up this week.MondayNo major events are scheduled.Tuesday● AUD — RBA Interest Rate Decision● EUR — German Balance of Trade● CAD — Ivey PMI s.aWednesdayNo major events are scheduled.Thursday● CNY — Chinese Balance of Trade● GBP — Official Bank Rate; MPC Meeting MinutesFriday● GBP — Manufacturing Production MoM; Manufacturing Production YoY; GDP Growth Rate YoY Prel; GDP Growth Rate QoQ Prel; GDP MoM;● CAD — Unemployment Rate● USD — University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment IndexHere at Contentworks we closely follow market movements and prep content that we think your traders would love to read. Let’s get you started right here.Speak soon!The Contentworks team
Join us as we wind the Contentworks time machine back 8 years — it’s 23 June 2016, and the UK population is about to make a decision that will drastically impact the regional and global economy. Was it the right decision? Well, flux capacitor on as we assess how Brexit is going, 4 years after the “official” split. After that, we’ll preview the top fundamental events you can trade this week.Wait, I need a refresher…In 2016, the British public voted to leave the European Union, with 52% voting out. The move shocked the world and instantly panicked markets, businesses and consumers alike.After a lengthy negotiation process, four years later the UK officially departed the EU on January 31st, 2020.Today, we’re going to examine the tangible effects of Brexit on the British economy, currency, trade, and — of course — people’s wallets. Then we’ll see what’s coming next.Pound for pound — how is GBP doing?Quite astoundingly, the GBP seems to be relatively strong against the dollar. Certainly when compared to the euro, the quid is holding its own.🔵GBP/USD🟡EUR/USDSource: GoogleThe EUR currently sits -4.75% vs. USD, with GBP -2.75%. It’s hardly cause for celebration, but the fact that, over the past 5 years, the pound only briefly fell out of correlation with the euro and that was when the split first happened. This could easily be counted as a relative success — if you’re a glass-half-full kinda gal/guy.Even better, there are increasing signs that the pound is set to embark on an upward trend. Rapid fall in UK inflation since its peak in 2022 has propelled the GBP forward. There’s an expectation that, as soon as macroeconomic effects improve, the GBP will thrive. If it comes, the question is: how long will it last?Don’t shout about that too loudly though, yeah?Trade disruptionNon-tariff barriers (NTBs) caused massive delays at ports in the early days of Brexit. Fundamentally, no one knew what on earth to do and how to get things moving again.There were increased administrative requirements for businesses, disrupted supply chains and don’t even mention how badly that impacted consumers. To date, the UK has signed trade deals and agreements in principle with about 70 countries and, importantly, one with the EU.Most of these deals are essentially just carbon copies of deals the UK previously had when it was an EU member, rather than creating new trading arrangements, but that’s not necessarily a bad thing. For example, the UK no longer has to follow EU rules on product standards.Economic growthRemember that inflation drop we talked about? That’s really good news for people’s back pockets. The last few years have not been plain sailing for the UK public who have experienced the longest period of falling living standards since the Napoleonic wars! Yeah, that was over 200 years ago!Because of the tightness of the labour market, average wage growth is probably going to remain well above inflation levels over the coming two years. That means a lot more money sloshing around in people’s bank accounts and if people do what they tend to do when they suddenly have some spare change for the first time in a while, they will look to spend it — which is great for the economy.What’s next?The mood between London and Brussels has definitely become more amicable since 2022, though core issues remain unresolved.One biggie is that post-Brexit tensions have continued in Scotland where a majority voted to remain in the EU. That whole Scottish independence situation still needs sorting out, though the SNP have conveniently, and involuntarily, all but removed themselves from the situation.Another imminent update is actually happening tomorrow (April 30) — when the second phase of Britain’s border controls on food imports from the EU kicks off. This will introduce physical checks for ”medium risk” animal products, plants and plant products, things like frozen meat, fish, cheese, eggs, dairy products and certain cut flowers and seeds. Let’s see how that goes…With a good chance that the UK will have a new (Labour-led) government in January 2025, there’s optimism that such change may bring an opportunity to negotiate.Who knows, the future of the UK might well be back in the EU. John Curtice, a prominent professor of politics at the University of Strathclyde and a well-respected pollster in Westminster recently stated that he “wouldn’t be surprised if (another referendum) happens before 2040.”We’ll leave it there…What’s your opinion?If you voted in the referendum in 2016, are you happy with how it played out? Has Brexit been a success in your eyes? Join the debate over on X at @_contentworks.Top fundamental events week commencing 29/04/24We hope you had a quiet weekend because this week is going to feel like a year! Ready?Monday● EUR — German Inflation Rate YoY PrelTuesday● CNY — Chinese NBS Manufacturing PMI; Chinese Caixin Manufacturing PMI● EUR — French GDP Growth Rate YoY Prel; French Inflation Rate YoY Prel; German GDP Growth Rate YoY Flash; Inflation Rate YoY Flash;● USD — Employment Cost — Wages QoQ; Employment Cost Index QoQ; CB Consumer ConfidenceWednesday● USD — ADP National Employment Report; Treasury Refunding Announcement; ISM Manufacturing PMI; JOLTs Job Openings; Federal Funds Rate; Fed Press ConferenceThursday● AUD — Balance of Trade● JPY — Consumer Confidence● CAD — Balance of TradeFriday● USD — Average Hourly Earnings MoM; Nonfarm Payrolls; Unemployment Rate; ISM Services PMIHere at Contentworks we closely follow market movements and prep content that we think your traders would love to read. Let’s get you started right here.Speak soon!The Contentworks team
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