The global finance landscape will be defined by a “Great Recoupling” in Q1 2026. After two years of aggressive interest rate hikes, followed by a cautious easing cycle, the world’s major economies are finally finding their neutral ground. However, this stability is being challenged by a massive AI-driven capital expenditure boom and a shifting regulatory landscape that is forcing legacy institutions to evolve or vanish. How will all this, and the evolving geopolitical environment shape trends in the first three months of the new year? Here’s our quarterly finance trends report to help you strategise for Q1 2026.
Finance Industry News
The headline for early 2026 is the AI Supercycle. Major investment banks, including JP Morgan and Barclays, have noted that over 1% of global GDP growth is now directly attributable to AI-related spending. For the finance industry, this translates into a bullish outlook for equities, with double-digit gains expected across the developed markets, even as a 35% probability of a US recession lingers in the background.
Forex Industry News
The forex market is moving away from the “dollar dominance” narrative that characterised 2024 and 2025. Instead, in Q1 2026 and beyond, diversification into multi-asset offerings and listed derivatives will no longer be optional for brokers that wish to stay relevant.
Market Sentiment & Currency Trends
The DXY enters 2026 with a net bearish outlook following its steepest decline in five decades during 2025 (down ~12%). The Federal Reserve is expected to reach its terminal rate of approximately 3.25% by March 2026. This move to a neutral stance means the USD is no longer driven by aggressive rate differentials but by structural domestic data. Analysts expect the dollar index to settle in the mid-90s by the year-end as interest rate differentials narrow.
Meanwhile, as the Bank of Japan (BoJ) continues its slow climb toward a 1.0% policy rate, the yen is becoming a more complex piece of the carry-trade puzzle.
Investors are likely to look to the EUR and SEK as “safe” growth bets, given that the Swedish krona was the best-performing G10 currency in 2025, rising around 19% against the USD. Conversely, the GBP could remain vulnerable to fiscal concerns, following a stagnant 2025 growth period.
The Great Platform Migration: MT5 Overtakes MT4
For the first time in 15 years, MetaTrader 5 (MT5) has officially surpassed MetaTrader 4 (MT4) in total trading volume. This shift is largely driven by brokers moving towards multi-asset models in a bid to keep traders engaged and active. MT5 now commands 62% of retail CFD volumes, while MT4 has slipped to 38%. Plus, approximately 68% of global brokerages now offer MT5, although 40% still maintain MT4 to support legacy traders and EA libraries.
Broker Priorities & AI Integration
Surveys reveal that automation and AI-driven retention are top priorities for brokers entering 2026. A Forrester report also shows that implementing AI-powered CRM solutions lead to an average 15% increase in sales revenue, with a 20% decrease in sales costs. AI-integrated platforms (using predictive sentiment and personalised alerts) are, therefore, likely to see wider adoption by brokers worldwide.
Regulatory Focus: The Pivot to Futures
Brokers are facing significant regulatory squeeze in Europe and Australia, leading to a major shift in business models. The regulatory squeeze has 89% of CFD brokers “very concerned, compared to 70% of non-CFD providers. In fact, 80% of CFD brokers are planning a pivot toward listed derivatives (Futures) to hedge against increasing regulatory oversight or further leverage caps.
Yet, the growth of the forex broker market is projected to reach a market size of $7.6 trillion by 2029, growing at a CAGR of 9.8%. This growth is expected to be driven by central banks’ interest rate decisions, rising integration of tech in trading platforms and improved transparency and efficiency, among other things.
Prop Trading News
The prop trading industry enters Q1 2026 having transitioned from a retail fad to a significant pillar of the global finance ecosystem. Following the “Great Shake-Out” of late 2025, which saw over 100 undercapitalised firms exit the market, the remaining players are larger, more transparent, and increasingly regulated. When we talk about prop trading in terms of finance trends we note that the Wild West era of unregulated evaluation models is ending, replaced by a Consolidation Era.
Broker-Backed Prop Trading
Traditional regulated brokers are launching their own prop arms, offering a “Live-from-Day-1” model that satisfies regulators by ensuring all funded accounts are tied to real market liquidity rather than purely internal demo environments. The reason for this is that proprietary trading is likely to rise in popularity in 2026, driven by:
- Rising cost of trading with personal capital
- Improved tech and transparency
- Better access to capital without loans
- Volatile markets expected to create opportunity
- Shift in trader mindset
Market Growth & Performance Metrics
The global prop trading industry was valued at about $12 billion in 2025, with the number of active prop traders having increased 25% since 2022. However, the success rate (profitability over 6 months) of prop traders remains at approximately 25%.
Although an 80/20 profit split is still followed by many prop trading firms, the benchmark is rapidly shifting to a 90/10 split, with traders preferring an on-demand payout model.
Regulatory Pivot: The CTA Classification
The most significant trend affecting prop firms is the shift in legal standing. The US CFTC has begun classifying evaluation-based firms as Commodity Trading Advisors (CTAs). So, evaluation-based prop trading firms will now need to maintain a minimum capital of $500,000 in segregated operational capital to ensure payout liquidity.
Meanwhile, in the UK and EU, firms must now undergo semi-annual audits to prove that payouts are funded by either real market gains or a verified liquidity pool, rather than just evaluation fees. The have also placed prop trading firms under the microscope for 2026, focusing on whether these entities should be classified as brokers and subject to the same capital requirements and marketing oversight.
Fintech and Banking News
Fintech is moving from automation to autonomy this year. In Q1 2026, we expect to see the emergence of Agentic Finance.
AI Banking Agents
Banks are no longer just offering chatbots; they are deploying AI agents capable of handling complex workflows like mortgage approvals, real-time fraud dispute resolution, and automated tax-loss harvesting.
Tokenisation as the Standard
Real-World Asset (RWA) tokenisation has moved from “pilot” to “standard.” Major banks, such as JP Morgan, HSBC, UBS, Goldman Sachs, Citi, BNY Mellon and Societe Generale, are now issuing on-chain bonds as a key method of capital raising, utilising the final technical standards provided by MiCA.
CBDC Pressure
While many Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs) remain in development, their looming presence is forcing traditional payment rails to adopt ISO 20022 standards and instant-settlement protocols to remain competitive.
Key Milestones
- Monzo’s European Expansion: In December 2025, Monzo secured a full ECB license and established its EU headquarters in Dublin. The bank reached a milestone of 14 million customers and is preparing for a potential IPO in H1 2026 under new Group CEO Diana Layfield.
- Revolut’s $75 Billion Valuation: Following a successful secondary share sale, Revolut enters 2026 as one of the world’s most valuable private fintechs. While its UK banking license remains a point of focus, the company is eyeing a 2026 public listing.
- Starling Bank & SME Tax Tech: Starling acquired the tax/accounting platform Ember to integrate directly into its business banking suite. This move is strategically timed for the UK’s 2026 “Making Tax Digital” deadline, aiming to capture more of the small-business market.
- Klarna’s Post-IPO Challenges: After its September 2025 IPO (valued at ~$14 billion), Klarna faced a turbulent Q4 with a 20% stock dip following higher-than-expected credit loss provisions, leading to a securities class action in early 2026.
Financial Marketing Trends
Marketing in the finance sector has become hyper-targeted, intensely personal and deeply impacted by GEO. Here are the trends that will rule in Q1 and beyond:
The Rise Of GEO Marketing
GEO (Generative Engine Optimisation) is the practice of optimising content so that AI-powered search engines like Google’s Search Generative Experience, ChatGPT Search, Perplexity, and Gemini can integrate it into generated answers. Traditional SEO focuses on improving ranking positions. GEO focuses on increasing the likelihood that your content becomes the source behind an AI summary or explanation. Finance brands who want to continue ranking need to restrategise this year for GEO, SEO and EEAT.
Long Form Content Gains In Popularity
Long-form content is making a strong comeback for banks, fintechs and forex brokers as audiences seek depth, credibility, and clarity. Rather than relying solely on short, promotional snippets, financial institutions are investing in detailed articles, in-depth market reports, educational guides, and thought leadership pieces that explain trends, risks, and strategies in a transparent way. This approach helps build trust, positions brands as authoritative sources, and supports better-informed decision-making among traders and investors. For banks and forex firms in particular, long-form content also performs well for SEO and GEO, nurtures higher-quality leads, and aligns with regulatory expectations.
Gamified Onboarding Continues To Boost Activation
Onboarding systems that incorporate interactive, game-like elements consistently outperform traditional static forms. Across fintech and neobanking, gamified flows have been shown to drive 30–40% higher completion rates, largely because they transform tedious steps like KYC, identity verification, and initial funding, into an engaging, narrative-driven experience. Instead of feeling like paperwork, users perceive onboarding as a challenge, a checklist to complete, or even a mini educational course where each step teaches them something valuable about the platform. This reframes friction points as progress moments, keeping motivation high while reducing drop-off. In 2026 financial brands may be looking to rebuild onboarding flows into a clear, milestone-based journey. They can introduce short educational modules, add unlockable incentives, or access to advanced features, once key steps are completed. This not only increases completion rates but also strengthens early product understanding and trust.
The End Of The Hype Beast Financial Influencer
The era of the “hype-beast” finance influencer is over. Banks are now partnering with technical analysts and certified financial planners to reach Gen Z and Millennial investors to build trust. Trust influencers are relatable content creators who share authentic, niche-specific experiences, making their product recommendations feel like genuine advice from a friend rather than a distant celebrity or traditional ad. This comes as regulators around the world are increasingly clamping down on unauthorised financial influencers who give investment or financial advice without proper credentials or oversight.
In China, new rules that came into effect in late 2025 require social-media influencers to hold formal qualifications like a degree, license, or professional certification, before they can post content on sensitive topics like finance. Platforms must also verify these credentials and clearly label content sources. This move is part of a broader effort to curb misinformation and protect investors from misleading “expert” advice. In other jurisdictions as well, regulators like the UK’s Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) have been actively cracking down on illegal “finfluencers,” issuing warnings, takedown requests, and enforcement actions against those offering unregistered financial promotions online.
Read our 10 financial marketing predictions for 2026.
Major Geopolitical Events in Q1 2026
Geopolitical risk remains the primary driver of black swan events. Let’s look at some of the geopolitical events that may impact the finance space in Q1, 2026.
US Fiscal and Political Risks
January will give us an idea of the Federal Reserve’s interest rate plan for the year. Plus, a potential US government shutdown looms if a funding bill is not passed by January 31, 2026. Furthermore, the ongoing debate about the high US public debt level and fiscal sustainability could lead to market instability, higher global interest rates and a stronger dollar, impacting capital flows to emerging markets.
Ongoing Regional Conflicts
The persistence of the Russia-Ukraine war and tensions in the Middle East continue to elevate the global geopolitical risk index. These conflicts primarily affect energy prices and supply chains, leading to potential inflation spikes and market volatility, particularly impacting oil-importing nations.
Central Bank Divergence
Global central banks are expected to follow different policy paths in Q1 2026. The US Fed is expected to continue with gradual rate cuts to support growth, while the Bank of Japan is likely to raise rates as inflation picks up. This divergence could create currency volatility and potentially limit a synchronised global market rally.
Expiration of US-Russia Nuclear Arms Treaty
The New START nuclear arms control treaty between the US and Russia is set to expire in February 2026. Although Russia has proposed a one-year extension of the treaty, the US response is still awaited. If the treaty expires, it could lead to widespread market panic regarding a potential collapse of nuclear arms control.
Some other events to watch:
- Jan 19-23: World Economic Forum (Davos) – Focus on global AI governance and
- Energy Transition 2.0.
- Feb 4-5: ECB Policy Meeting – Crucial for EUR stability amid French fiscal uncertainty.
- Feb 13-15: Munich Security Conference – Updates on NATO’s stance and global trade war escalations.
- March 4: China’s “Two Sessions” – Legislative meetings that will define China’s tech spending for the year.
- March 11-15: Chilean Presidential Inauguration – Significant for the copper and lithium markets.
The tension between the US and China over AI chip dominance continues to be the “thermal layer” beneath all market activity. Any shift in the tariff rhetoric during the Davos summit could trigger volatility in the forex markets, specifically for the AUD and JPY.
Q4 Volatility Watch: What Brokers & Banks Should Do
Looking back at the end of 2025, we saw a surge in “flash volatility,” or short, intense bursts of price moves, driven by algorithmic feedback loops. As we move into 2026, brokers and banks must refine their risk management frameworks for:
The Liquidity Challenge
With more trades moving to instant-settlement rails, liquidity is becoming fragmented. Brokers must ensure they have multi-asset liquidity pools to eliminate reliance on a single prime broker. Plus, the traditional T+1 risk reporting is obsolete. Firms must monitor their Value at Risk (VaR) in real-time.
Algorithmic Guardrails
Banks and brokers must implement “Circuit Breaker” AI—autonomous systems that can detect when their own trading algorithms are entering a “death spiral” and automatically pause execution to prevent a total capital wipeout. This is becoming a de facto requirement under newer regulatory frameworks. Banking giant JPMorgan already uses circuit breakers to secure online transactions.
Regulatory Spotlight
The regulatory landscape of 2026 is defined by transparency and accountability.
- As of Q1 2026, the EU’s Markets in Crypto-Assets (MiCA) regulation is fully operational. Any firm offering crypto-asset services in the EEA must have a CASP (Crypto-Asset Service Provider) license. This will lead to a cleaner, more institutional-grade crypto market in Europe.
- Also, the IRS Crypto Reporting (Form 1099-DA) rules became effective on January 1, 2026. The IRS now requires centralised exchanges and certain DeFi protocols to report cost-basis information for digital asset transactions. This is a massive shift for US-based traders and requires brokers to have robust reporting engines.
- In December 2025, The US SEC provided a clearer path for broker-dealers to maintain “physical possession” of crypto assets, paving the way for traditional banks to offer secure digital asset custody to retail clients. In addition, the UK FCA and Australia’s ASIC are tightening rules on social and copy trading, requiring influencers who provide signals to be licensed financial advisors.
Contentworks Agency closely monitors shifts in regulations and finance trends to best serve our banks, forex brokers and fintechs. For a full breakdown of the latest regulatory moves, don’t miss our monthly regulations roundup reports. Ready to improve your financial marketing in 2026? Book a free Zoom call with our team.
Sources
We used the following sources to produce the finance trends report:
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